Thursday, April 22, 2010

4/22/10 Midday Report: Market struggles to find green on Earth Day thanks in part to the new planet threatening phenomenon of Goldman Warning

It's Earth Day which means Al Gore is likely so giddy that he is rolling around the back seat of his electric car while warming his globes to thoughts of Susan Solomon's ozone hole and Carmella Bing's flourescent bulbs.  And sadly, while all of this is happening, somewhere a polar bear dies.  Anyway, the market is trying to shake off a sluggish start thanks to poor earnings, the Greek economy's impending trip down the river Styx, and the release of a new Jennifer Lopez movie suggestively titled The Back-Up Plan (and yes, Money McBags would plan to back that up). 

But all is not bad today as US macro news was largely positive.  Existing home sales in March rose for the first time in four months climbing 6.8% thanks to government incentives, the weather, and buy one get one free Sundays.  Also, new claims for unemployment were down 24k to 456k which was surprisingly pretty much inline with analyst guesses thus giving credence to the old adage that even a broken clock is right twice a day (as opposed to the new adage that even a broken cock can love Hanna Hilton twice a day).  As always, 10MM people are still receving unemployment benefits, extended benefits, and for the really lucky ones, friends with benefits.  Finally, Producer prices rose but only modestly above analyst guesses.  The PPI was up .7% largely because of food costs which were up by the most in 26 years since the great Dorito shortage of 1984.   The price of vegetables was up a remarkable 49%, which did wonders for Stephen Hawking's market value, but at some point those cost increases wil start being handed down to consumers.   Excluding food and fuel though, PPI was flat, so once again, as long as you don't need to eat or go anywhere, your money should last a long time.  The point is, no matter how long economists want to delude themselves by using core PPI, inflation is coming because the goverment fired up the money making machines to try to push our economic problems off on the next generation (so next generation, here's a big fuck you, but on the positive side, we did give you the NSFW  Money McBags would call it the largest ponzi scheme in history, but it already has a name: Keynesian Economics.

In international news, apparently the Greek budget deficit was worse than originally thought and may top 14% of GDP which is a fuckload of dolma.  The bigger problem is that there are many "uncertainites" about the quality of Greece's data including the currency swap noted fraudsters Goldman Sachs hid for them and the fact that they hired David Friehling to audit their books.  As a result of all of this nonsense, premiums on Greek bonds continue to reach new heights like Enceladus going through puberty.   Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou is caught between a rock and his nether regions upon viewing Greek sensation Julia Alexandratou's sex tape (which can be viewed in its entirety by searching for it on the aforementioned spankwire) as further austerity measures may crumble the spirit of the already striking Greek workers while doing nothing may hinder Greece's ability to get aid from the IMF and Eurozone.  As always, Money McBags is going to assume this is much ado about nothing because the Euro countries are not going to let Greece fail and if the country survived the Trojan Wars and Criss Angel's career, a little debt is not going to hurt it.

In earnings news SBUX put up a quarter stronger than a venti Sumatra with no cream or sugar.  Not only was traffic up 3% up, but spending was up 5% which helped drive eps of $.29 beating analyst guesses by $.04.  SBUX rasied their outlook from $1.09 per share for 2010 to $1.19 to $1.22 and the stock is now trading at ~22x the top of that range which isn't ridiculously expensive, except when you factor in that overall revenue growth was only 9%.  Money McBags doesn't own SBUX but he would be long biased.  Driving the Street down though were earnings from EBAY and QCOM.  EBAY actually beat estimates, but revenue growth in their core US business was inline and guidance of $.37 eps to $.39 eps for next q was below analyst guesses of $.40.  Money McBags is not a bidder for EBAY since their business model ex. Paypal is so 1998 that he just doesn't get it as the only people who still buy shit on EBAY auctions get kicked off half the time because their dial up AOL accounts fail.  As for QCOM, they also gave disappointing guidance which has caused a sell off as fear that handset sales may be weak despite AAPL's rindonkulous quarter yesterday.

In othe market news Moody's downgraded Toyota due to their recent vehicle recall, while Money McBags once again downgraded Moody's.  So well done Moody's, though downgrading Toyota now is a bit like downgrading White Star Lines a month after the Titanic sunk, but hey, at least you were earlier on this downgrade than the one for Lehman.  You know what though Moody's, go fuck yourself.  You are worse at your job than an achluophobic night watchman or Heidi Montag's voice coach.

Finally, the NYTimes turned a profit, but then again, Money McBags learned that from reading the New York times for free online so it could all be made up. And last and most definitely least, in a deal no one gives a shit about, Century Tel is buying Qwest for $10.6B in stock and one outdated business model.

In small cap news today Money McBags favorite KITD is out with another share offering and this one is even more dilutive than the last.  Money McBags has broken down KITD's business may times (just type KITD into the search box here), but is a bit concerned about the size of this offering which is for ~4.3MM shares at $13 in order to get ~$55MM in cash.  The good news is the $13 price is above where it closed yesterday, KITD's CEO has maintained that any acquisition will be accretive, and Heather Graham has another NSFW nude scene in her new movie.  The bad news is that the share offering is about 25% dilutive and without knowing how it is going to be used, it reduces Money McBags $2.00-$2.25 high end eps estimate for next year to closer to $1.75 at best.  Money McBags is glad that KITD is finding opportunities and the CEO owns a fuckload of equity so he is diltuing himself as well, but there comes a point in time where they are going to have to run this business and put up results with what they have.  So while they say only 40% of growth is from acquisitions, they are going to need to show some strong numbers to support that.  Money McBags has no intention of selling on this news, he still trusts management is doing things right, but the size of the deal and the fact that it is coming so soon after the last one gives Money McBags just a small pang in his gut that he hopes is merely last night's dinner and not some early subliminal warning sign that this company may be biting off more than it can chew.

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