Thursday, June 24, 2010

6/24/10 Midnight Report: Market dials up LifeCall as it has fallen and can't get up

The market tanked at the end of the session like Money McBags' day which has caused today's column to be late, short, and in need of one more read through, but it is what it is.  You see, Money McBags was cranking away at his terminal, busily breaking down the news, perusing 10Ks for cheap stocks, and most importantly scouring the interweb for just the right picture of Kelly Brook, when life got in the way and he was called out to the cruel cruel world to fix some dumb shit.  With dumb shit marginally fixed, Money McBags is drained of his energy and thus will be publishing his halfway done column today.  It ain't Shakespeare or Fante, but luckily it also isn't Santelli, Colmes, or Bartiromo, and so it goes...

New claims for unemployment came out today and they were down 19k, or 15k, depending on if you want to use the number reported last week as your baseline or the "revised/manipulated" number released today.  Last week new claims were 472k and this week claims were supposedly down 19k to 457k.  Once again, if you do the math you get an equal sign more confused than Helen Keller's dogs (because how the fuck would they know to sit, stay, or roll over when every command sounded like "arhgahgaha.").  Analysts guessed new claims would come in at 460k, so they were close enough that one might be deluded in to thinking their regression models actually regress to something believable and that this week's close call was not just luck caused by a random fluctuation, but Money McBags knows better and knows that those models have no clothes (though he is usually in favor of clothes-less models).  Either way, the job market remains more challenged than a bus driver in El Salvador or a color blind synesthiac.  4.55MM people remain on traditional unemployment, another 5.3MM remain on extended unemployment, and another 10MM remain on no employment and must subsist off the heat generated from their dying hopes and dreams.  Luckily there was news out today that was portrayed as slightly positive with durable goods orders excluding transportation (and durable goods are anything expected to last for 3+ years like cars, machinery, and Savannah Stern's chest) rising by .9% after a .8% decrease in April bringing orders slightly above where they were in March.  So in honor of tonight's NBA Draft and the great Derrick Coleman, "whoop-de-dam-do."  Additionally, orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, rose by 2.1% which gives a bit of confidence to the markets that businesses will still be operating in a month.

Internationally, Greek default swaps reached record highs as common sense creeps back in to the market.  Eventually Greece isn't going to be able to roll over their debt so we can either make like math doesn't exist and time doesn't move linearly (Einstein's relativity be damned) and live in a happy world where Greece can function in perpetuity despite a debt level so fuck awful that even Stephen Baldwin laughs at it, or we can just buy the fuck out of Greek CDS and get our fiddles ready so we can pull a Nero when Athens burns.  In other international news, Australia elected their first female prime minister in Julia Gillard who was born in Wales, is a lawyer by trade, and though never married, dates a male hairdresser which I believe makes him a well trimmed beard.  Gillard promises to work with mining companies and be tough on spending to keep Australia's economy from going down under (eat your heart out on that one Jay Leno).

In earnings news, Nike just did it, well that is if "it" is missing analyst guesses of revenues.  NKE profit was up 53% which was inline with guesses but revenues of $5.08B were up only 4% (ex. currency flucutations) and missed analyst guesses of $5.15B.  Orders were up 9% though and the company did earn $1.04 per share so while the stock sold off ~4% today, it's not like they totally shit the bed or perhaps more appropriately, it's not like they shit on the cold floor in the corner of the room where 20 sweat shop workers sleep on the hour they have off in between shifts of sewing fucking swooshes on canvas sneakers.  In other earnings news, Discover found their way to a strong quarter with profit up 14% thanks to improving credit trends, increased customer spend, and the House financial reform bill not having been passed yet.  Charge-offs were up year over year to 8% from 7.5% but down sequentially from 8.5% so depending on what trend you want to use, card users are acting better or worse.

In small cap news today KIRK was down ~7% today and as Money McBags said yesterday, he thinks this is a good entry point (though not as good of an entry point as the gap in Jessica Hart's teef).  That said, Money McBags refuses to catch falling knives and this stock is clearly falling as investors take profits on shit that has gone up as the market now falls, so wait for this to settle before jumping in as fundamentally it remains as strong as Money McBags' belief in truth, honesty, and Hayley Atwell.

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