Friday, December 18, 2009

12/18/09 Midday Report: Earnings surprises abound as RIMM jobs naysayers and naysayers begrudgingly admit they kind of liked it

The big news moving the market up today is that several tech companies beat earnings.  Leading the way was RIMM who destroyed analyst forecasts of $1.04 by dropping $1.23 to their damp bottom line and growing topline by 49%.  They also raised guidance, margin forecasts, and the ire of PALM who once again fell short of expectations like all of Jaimee Grubbs' parent's hopes and dreams.  Apparently people still like buying Blackberries even if they don't always work as the Curve is now the number one selling smart phone, so suck on that Apple and your beautiful, fully functional iPhone which is so awesometastic it will actually wipe and bidet you for no extra charge.

In other tech news, ORCL easily beat forecasts as more companies are buying the fuck out of whatever ORCL software does and that can only be positive, unless Oracle software is responsible for promoting Paris Hilton's album, the intelligent design theory, or trickle-down economics.

In macro news, German business confidence rose as the Business Climate Index predicted the climate is getting so much better that all rain showers will now be golden.  The index managed to rise to a whopping 94.7, beating out expectations of 94.5 and we all know how great a .2 beat is of a number with no context, right?  Actually, the number comes from a survey of 7,000 German firms across their biggest industries including manufacturing, construction, wholesaling, retailing, and scat film shooting.  The longterm average is 96 so I guess everything in Europe is almost back to normal, just don't tell the Greeks.

And finally Money McBags favorite RICK met expectations and didn't give guidance but said the current $.19 quarterly eps is a decent range though the first two quarters this year should be stronger than that with the NBA all-star game in Dallas and the Super Bowl and Pro Bowl in Miami (no seriously, they said that). Unfortunately, no one on the call asked how revenues during the Super Bowl will be effected by Chris Henry's absence and Pac Man Jones' unemployment.

If you read the transcript from their call, which I highly recommend even though it's no Tolstoy (but it is an asshair better than any of that Dan Brown crap), you can even learn of RICK's successful recent Toys for Tots event in their NYC club and no, Money McBags is not making that up but yes he is pissed his parents never got him those kind of toys when he was a tot.  The point is, this company is easily going to earn $.76 next year and is likely going to earn over $1.00 (where analyst estimates currently are).  They are trading at ~10x a worse case scenario and 6x-7x a more reasonable estimate.  The problem is that RICK's is always one hummer in the champagne room away from being screwed (pun intended) so Money McBags recommends you go long RICK and buy some long dated out of the money puts to cover your ass should that happen (though he also recommends that RICK employees do everything but cover their asses).

Enjoy the weekend.

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