Thursday, December 24, 2009

12/24/09 Mid-Morning Report: It's Christmas Eve, can a jew get a table dance?

Yes Money McBags lights the menorah and it looks like the market wants him to get those table dances tonight as it is up again on positively mixed news.  Durable goods orders rose, though missed expectations with weakness in autos and airplanes which is not suurprising since "Cash for Clunkers" went away like Tom DeLay's dignity.  Taking out transportation, durable goods demand demolished estimates like Kirstie Alley demolishes her Christmas ham (and it is reasons like this that NTRI has been absolutely killing it lately).  Orders were up 2% ex-transportation, led by demand for machinery, metals, computers, and stripper poles.  The question remains whether this is real demand or just inventory build back, so we're trying to temper our excitement and make it last longer by just thinking about baseball.

In other positive market news today, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since September 2008 as eventually you run out of people to fire.  So if you made it through and stayed employed this long, you might be ok, but if you're looking for a job, you may be fucked worse than the lovely Houston at her 620 man gangbang.

In stock news, Money McBags' long time favorite QCOR is up 20% on news that the FDA will give a ruling on Achtar for IS by June (and hopefully the ruling is more than just finding it delicious).  Seeing as how it took QCOR about 3 years and several  "do-overs" to get this filing accepted (and you'd think they were trying to prove P=NP with how long it took them to simply get a filing complete), this is positive news, but the FDA still has to approve this drug which is used by the majority of doctors anyway (so one would think it would be approved, but then again, one also thought Lindsay Lohan would have had a long and profitable career and Evolution would not have been contested in the 21st Century).  Money McBags wouldn't be buying into this rally though.  It seems more like short covering than anything because the company is still going through growing pains and there is some uncertainty to their medicare reimbursement as they currently have to pay more than they get from medicare and didn't reserve enough for late/non-payments last Q.  The company is probably at a ~$.08-$.10 quarterly run rate right now, but they have cash and give back to shareholders through buybacks.  They could have real upside if they continue to penetrate the MS market and can get on-label IS approval while overcoming the sticker shock from doctors/patients/insurance companies on the price of a vial of Achtar which currently runs at $23k a pop (and that is enough to cure spasms from MS/IS but create spasms from having to pay that price).  


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