The market raced up today as if it were Icarus escaping from Crete and rapidly approaching the tantalizing Sun, though with luck it used better wings and thus will avoid the same fate. Despite more negative macro news, a growing and unsustainable debt, and more longterm unemployed people than a fast food addict has bacne, the market is responding positively to a number of earnings reports because apparently four or five data points are much more relevant than the last 3 months of data, statistics, and common sense.
In macro news, new claims for unemployment were out and as usual, were much worse than analyst guesses. Claims rose by 37k to 464k (though next week that number will likely be revised to 470k, because that's how the (NO) Labor department rolls). Analysts were only slightly off in their predictions of claims rising by 17k and by slightly, Money McBags means whatever the opposite of slightly is, like considerably, greatly, or a fuckload. But hey, only 45% of the 14.6MM unemployed people have been out of work for more than 6 months and if that doesn't scream market rally, then nothing does (and of course that number doesn't include people who simply stopped looking for work as they became more discouraged than the Edsel's marketing team or Stevie Wonder's shoe polisher after Mr. Wonder downs a Big Gulp and hits a urinal).
In other macro news, existing home sales fell by 5.1% but since analysts had guessed they would fall by 8.1%, the market reacted positively, choosing to ignore the absolute for the relative, which is a bit like getting excited about your daughter sleeping with Magic Johnson and only coming away with herpes. There are 4MM homes on the market which at the current sales pace equates to a 9 month supply of homes which is bad news for sellers but good news for that one guy looking relocate. And finally, the index of US leading indicators fell .2% but that was .1% better than guesses so another pyrrhic victory for the market to celebrate while it ignores the bigger picture like King Pyrrhus ignored the replenishing forces of roman soldiers.
Of course the big news today is earnings where several companies beat guesses, put out better guidance, and did it all with a straight face. UPS beat analyst guesses and gave above street guidance thus figuratively dropping a deuce on estimates and showing what brown can really do. New guidance was for $3.35 to $3.47 per share which was well above analyst guesses of $3.27 per share and driven by their international business and more people buying shit online since they can't afford gas for their cars. Obviously an increased pace of shipping bodes well for a recovery somewhere so hopefully the uptick is a result of real business needs and not companies shipping left behind picture frames to the people they laid off.
Caterpillar is another company that put up a huge quarter which made more than just lepidopterists happy. The company crawled its way to 31% revenue growth and 93% profit growth while raising their guidance and destroying analyst guesses as if those guesses were freshly laid ant larvae. EPS was $1.09 and guesses were for $.85 eps and in this market, a beat that large is rarer than a Palos Verde Blue or a pair of underwear worn by Paris Hilton. Also, AT&T called up analysts and told them they suck as the company forecast strong growth for the rest of the year. Earnings of $.61 per share beat analyst guesses of $.57 per share and the beat was surprisingly due to their wireline business as more people celebrate the recession with staycations. And finally regional banks everywhere led by PNC, STI, and BBT put up solid earnings on improving credit trends and a lowering of provisions which seems more shortsighted than Mr. Magoo with two eyepatches on but good for them (for now).
In other stock news GM is buying subprime lender AmeriCredit because they have such a great record running lending businesses. This acquisition is like allowing Roman Polanski to pick up the baby sitter or Ben Stein to give you macroeconomic advice. On the heels of this merger, the Federal Government is said to be already building a fund to be able to bail GM out again when they horribly mismanage this subprime book.
In small cap news, a Money McBags favorite, KITD preannounced their quarter this morning. Now look, Money McBags has written about this company more often than Rudy Giuliani talks about 911 or Taylor Rain goes 5-hole because it is ridonkulously cheap and growing faster than Teddy Roosevelt's reputation after he singlehandedly corralled 3 outlaws for trial in the Dakota Badlands in 1885. Anyway, KITD's preannouncement today was for at least $22.7MM in revenue for Q2 which is ~110% y/y growth ~30% sequential growth and EBITDA of at least $4MM which is up from $3MM last Q.
But here is the interesting part. Money McBags has been worried about them due to the effect of the Euro dropping faster than the commercial prospects for any yet to be released Mel Gibson movie. He first mentioned his concerns here which had to do with the Euro declining ~25% against the dollar in the Q and KITD being highly levered to the exchange rate. Well the CEO addressed this today saying:
"Our record second quarter results superseded the devaluation of European currencies, which we estimate had about a 4% negative impact on our top-line during the period, as reported in U.S. dollars. We estimate that this currency devaluation actually had a small (less than 1%) positive impact on overall cash-flow, since we have slightly higher proportion of costs than revenues in European currencies."
Wow. While Money McBags doesn't quite get how the impact was only a negative 4% topline hit, but he'll take that number all fucking day like a Spanish worker takes a siesta after five minutes of semi-intense labor. So KITD must somehow be weighted more Asia and less Europe than Money McBags thought or something else is going on because he thought costs and revenues were in local currencies, but whatever. That is a terrific number and Money McBags feels much much better about his low end estimates now being so low as to be more preposterous than a professional wrestler becoming a governor.
The other highly positive news on KITD was that their DSOs fell from a way too elevated 128 days to 90 days which had caused a hella lot of fear from investors because when a weird, dinky little company levered to Europe and growing way too rapidly starts having balance sheet issues, things usually turn out worse than one of Andy Reid's kids or a school for the deaf trying to sing in a round for their yearly concert.
Oh yeah, Money McBags also loved this tidbit:
"The proliferation of Internet-connected devices, coupled with the accelerating worldwide adoption of broadband connections and video-capable mobile networks (3G and 4G), appears to be fueling a strong, overall long-term growth trend in IP-based video asset management systems. "KIT digital is in the 'sweet spot' to benefit from this rising VAMs tide," said Isaza Tuzman. "With the extinguishment of most of our warrants and the incurrence of previous M&A restructuring charges now largely behind us, we are looking forward to providing greater visibility into our strong financial performance and industry positioning, starting with the reporting of our complete Q2 financial results, to be released in mid-August.""
So what we learned again is that this is a great space to be in and KITD is not just the biggest global player, but continues to leverage their software and relationships to stay in the sweet spot. Plus, by getting rid of all of their income statement shenanigans that causes this company to report operating EBITDA which is not an easy metric for HFT's, quant funds, and portfolio managers to easily pick up in any universe screen, KITD will make themselves easier for investors to find and evaluate. As Money McBags fully expects their EPS to be more positive than January Jones' prom date, being able to get rid of all the extraneous shit will only help the market properly value this company.
On the strength of their Q and the fact that revenue did not get mobelcrated by the declining Euro (mobelcrated of course being the thing that is just a bit worse than excoriated), Money McBags is going to maintain his initial estimates for this year of ~$95MM revenue and ~$19MM EBITDA. The company has a current EV of ~$175MM so it's trading at ~8.5x this year's EBITDA and the company is getting 100% revenue growth. Next year, $150MM revenue and $30MM EBITDA is not unachievable and thus at the high end this company is trading at ~6x EV/EBITDA which is way too low for the kind of growth market this company is in even if it is somewhat of a roll up, headquartered in Prague, and loves to dilute the shit out of shareholders.
But wait, let's throw out all of the nonsense on the income statement and lets say KITD hits $95MM revenue this year and grows 30% next year (again, a low estimate). With 50% gross margins (which is a low estimate compared to the last few Qs) and say ~$40MM in operating costs, and enough NOLs to make even Wesley Snipes smile, you get ~$.95 eps and after today's run up, the company is trading at only 10x that. Companies growing topline like KITD in this kind of market should not be trading at 10x forward eps, 2.5x current year revenue estimates, or 6x forward EV/EBITDA.
So if you can deal with the warts and likely volatility, this name should easily trade for 20x eps estimates or 10x EV/EBITDA which gives us at least 50% upside from here. Yesterday Money McBags made the case for CRUS once again, today he is telling you he likes KITD better and reminding you that when the stock dipped below $9 on July 7th, Money McBags told you to load up (of course he told you that all the way down as well, but whatever). In the longrun this company should see very nice appreciation so sit back and enjoy the ride as it might be rocky but it's should be very profitable.
And as always, When Genius Prevailed is on Facebook and Twitter.
Showing posts with label KITD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label KITD. Show all posts
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Thursday, July 15, 2010
7/15/10 Midevening Report: Senate approves financial reform only 5 years too late, next up, what to do about all of those indians
The Senate passed a sweeping financial reform bill today, though the only thing it is likely to sweep is more problems under the rug. After many compromises between Democrats and Republicans, the bill basically lets regulators feel the financial sector up but then caucusblocks them from going all the way. Sure there are now limits on how much banks can invest in hedge funds and sure some prop trading desks will be sold, but all this bill really did was create a fuckload more complexity in regulating the financial sector and The Street thrives on complexity since they make money by basically exploiting loopholes. So the bill gives the Fed more strength (and really, haven't they earned it?) to create a bunch of redundant regulatory groups and gives them power to do a bunch of shit that they will only do after the fact because pro-active regulation is more of an oxymoron than deafening silence or David Hasselhoff's talents. Money McBags gives the financial reform 3 yawns out of 4 as it's like thinking about putting a band aid on a gaping bullet wound.
In macro news, new claims for unemployment were the lowest they have been in 2 years, until the (No) Labor Department revises them upward next week. Claims dropped by 29k to 429k after they were once again manipulated upward from last week's 454k number to 458k. The large drop in claims is being attributed both to temporary layoffs at factories being postponed as companies like GM announced they will keep their plants open for most of the season, and just making up numbers. One reason the drop didn't move the market up is that the (No) Labor Department concentrates on seasonally adjusted numbers and their seasonal adjustment is likely as good as Sheyla Hershey's boob job so therefore if we look at unseasonallly adjusted numbers, we see that they rose by 45k to 513k, the highest number since January. Also, continuing claims jumped up by 247k to 4.68MM which is as healthy for the economy as smoking a cigarrette spiked with asbestos and Charlie Sheen's taint hair. Either way, Money McBags is sure that the 429k number will be revised upwards to something like 437k next week so it's hard to get excited about a big drop that is really due to a timing issue and will be changed anyway. And just to show that Money McBags is here for you in analyzing the numbers, remember that last week after claims were announced at 454k, Money McBags predicted that:
"The big macro news is that new claims for unemployment dropped to 454k or some number higher than that depending on how much the (No) Labor Department manipulates/readjusts numbers next week. Money McBags is not a betting man (unless there is money to be won or young ladies to impress) but he is willing to wager that next week we learn that new claims for this week should have actually been 459k."
And sure enough they were manipulated up to 458k so either Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis (though to be honest, Money McBags thought we did away with the word "secretary" and were now calling them "administrative assistants," but whatever) is using WGP to set her numbers or Money McBags' forecasting method which involves sticking his finger in the air while figuratively pulling a number out of Sofia Vergara's voluptuous ass is not just more delightful than the bullshit models used by the (No) Labor Department but also hella more accurate. See, anyone can make up numbers.
In other macro news, the NY Fed's Empire State Manufacturing index dropped like George Steinbrenner on Tuesday (too soon?). The index came in at 5.1, only slightly below the 18 economists had guessed, and while Money McBags has no idea what the difference between 5.1 and 18 is (other than 12.9), he's pretty sure something less than 1/3 of predictions isn't good in the same way that being the only female smurf or hiring MC Esher to design your staircase isn't good. Not only did manufacturing in New York decline, but it did in Philly as well where the Philly Fed's manufacturing index also fell to 5.1 which was below guesses of 10, though the 5 point miss was said to simply be stolen like everything else manufactured in Philly. While Money McBags finds it odd that two Fed manufacturing surveys would each register 5.1 in the same month (something about as likely as Paul Krugman winning a nobel prize), he does not find it surprising that manufacturing was starting to slip because we're in something called a GLOBAL FUCKING RECESSION.
On a slightly more positive note, the Fed said industrial production creeped up .1% in June thanks to mining and utilities, on an even more positive note, Brooklyn Decker. Finally, producer prices fell again, this time by .5%, led by a steep 2.2% decline in food prices which were driven by an earlier weather-related jump in the price of tomatoes and an even earlier economy related dive in people's incomes.
Internationally, China's growth slowed in the Q to 10.3% from 11.9% in last year's Q1 while industrial production rose 13.7% which would be great if it weren't lower than what 26 out of 27 analysts on Bloomberg had guessed. Of course on WGP, Money McBags has shown both that analysts have no ability to forecast numbers and the numbers themselves as mostly fictitious like supply side economics, big foot, and Lauren Conrad's career, so ho fucking hum again. While China's growth was basically inline, it left investors hungry for more just twenty minutes later and thus asian markets were down.
In the market, JP Morgan beat estimates in their quarterly game of numbers roulette. Net income was up 76% to $4.8B despite an 8% decline in revenue thanks to a $1.5B reserve release which was the biggest release in NY since Stephon Marbury. That said, while the reserve release is a bit puzzling since the economy is nudging south like a wannabe hollywood actress on her first casting couch, JPM's credit card division turned profitable for the first time in several quarters and overall the company beat guesses by ~$.03 after stripping out one-timers. The biggest surprise though was WGP favorite Dick "Don't call me Richard" Bove who never saw a financial stock he couldn't misunderstand or artificially pump up, lowered his rating of JPM claiming revenue was weak and earnings were more manipulated than new claims for unemployment numbers or Tiger Woods' image. In other large cap news, the market braces for GOOG's earnings release and Money McBags is long the stock but he bets it will drop 8% regardless of whether they beat or not because high frequency traders hate growing companies with solid earnings and instead have calibrated their algorithms to find companies that are correlated to the phases of the moon and since HFTs control 50% of the market volume, they win most of the time.
In small cap news, JOEZ is set to report tonight and they will likely show more revenue growth, and yet declining earnings as their cost of operations and tax rate have them more set to fail than Amy Winehouse in a "girls I'd like to bone contest." Also, Money McBags favorite KITD had their buy rating reitirated by Janney Capital today. Janney maintained their $13 price target which is only ~50% too low, but remember, analysts are paid to just publish and not to be right or stick their necks out for anything. As Money McBags isn't getting paid for his research and has no constituency to please other than his own trading account and the lovely Teresa Palmer, he is not afraid to make big calls and unless KITD's management is completely and utterly full of shit (10% chance but moving up proportionally with their growing A/R), this company is more undervalued than sharing a chilli dog with Natalie Portman.
In macro news, new claims for unemployment were the lowest they have been in 2 years, until the (No) Labor Department revises them upward next week. Claims dropped by 29k to 429k after they were once again manipulated upward from last week's 454k number to 458k. The large drop in claims is being attributed both to temporary layoffs at factories being postponed as companies like GM announced they will keep their plants open for most of the season, and just making up numbers. One reason the drop didn't move the market up is that the (No) Labor Department concentrates on seasonally adjusted numbers and their seasonal adjustment is likely as good as Sheyla Hershey's boob job so therefore if we look at unseasonallly adjusted numbers, we see that they rose by 45k to 513k, the highest number since January. Also, continuing claims jumped up by 247k to 4.68MM which is as healthy for the economy as smoking a cigarrette spiked with asbestos and Charlie Sheen's taint hair. Either way, Money McBags is sure that the 429k number will be revised upwards to something like 437k next week so it's hard to get excited about a big drop that is really due to a timing issue and will be changed anyway. And just to show that Money McBags is here for you in analyzing the numbers, remember that last week after claims were announced at 454k, Money McBags predicted that:
"The big macro news is that new claims for unemployment dropped to 454k or some number higher than that depending on how much the (No) Labor Department manipulates/readjusts numbers next week. Money McBags is not a betting man (unless there is money to be won or young ladies to impress) but he is willing to wager that next week we learn that new claims for this week should have actually been 459k."
And sure enough they were manipulated up to 458k so either Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis (though to be honest, Money McBags thought we did away with the word "secretary" and were now calling them "administrative assistants," but whatever) is using WGP to set her numbers or Money McBags' forecasting method which involves sticking his finger in the air while figuratively pulling a number out of Sofia Vergara's voluptuous ass is not just more delightful than the bullshit models used by the (No) Labor Department but also hella more accurate. See, anyone can make up numbers.
In other macro news, the NY Fed's Empire State Manufacturing index dropped like George Steinbrenner on Tuesday (too soon?). The index came in at 5.1, only slightly below the 18 economists had guessed, and while Money McBags has no idea what the difference between 5.1 and 18 is (other than 12.9), he's pretty sure something less than 1/3 of predictions isn't good in the same way that being the only female smurf or hiring MC Esher to design your staircase isn't good. Not only did manufacturing in New York decline, but it did in Philly as well where the Philly Fed's manufacturing index also fell to 5.1 which was below guesses of 10, though the 5 point miss was said to simply be stolen like everything else manufactured in Philly. While Money McBags finds it odd that two Fed manufacturing surveys would each register 5.1 in the same month (something about as likely as Paul Krugman winning a nobel prize), he does not find it surprising that manufacturing was starting to slip because we're in something called a GLOBAL FUCKING RECESSION.
On a slightly more positive note, the Fed said industrial production creeped up .1% in June thanks to mining and utilities, on an even more positive note, Brooklyn Decker. Finally, producer prices fell again, this time by .5%, led by a steep 2.2% decline in food prices which were driven by an earlier weather-related jump in the price of tomatoes and an even earlier economy related dive in people's incomes.
Internationally, China's growth slowed in the Q to 10.3% from 11.9% in last year's Q1 while industrial production rose 13.7% which would be great if it weren't lower than what 26 out of 27 analysts on Bloomberg had guessed. Of course on WGP, Money McBags has shown both that analysts have no ability to forecast numbers and the numbers themselves as mostly fictitious like supply side economics, big foot, and Lauren Conrad's career, so ho fucking hum again. While China's growth was basically inline, it left investors hungry for more just twenty minutes later and thus asian markets were down.
In the market, JP Morgan beat estimates in their quarterly game of numbers roulette. Net income was up 76% to $4.8B despite an 8% decline in revenue thanks to a $1.5B reserve release which was the biggest release in NY since Stephon Marbury. That said, while the reserve release is a bit puzzling since the economy is nudging south like a wannabe hollywood actress on her first casting couch, JPM's credit card division turned profitable for the first time in several quarters and overall the company beat guesses by ~$.03 after stripping out one-timers. The biggest surprise though was WGP favorite Dick "Don't call me Richard" Bove who never saw a financial stock he couldn't misunderstand or artificially pump up, lowered his rating of JPM claiming revenue was weak and earnings were more manipulated than new claims for unemployment numbers or Tiger Woods' image. In other large cap news, the market braces for GOOG's earnings release and Money McBags is long the stock but he bets it will drop 8% regardless of whether they beat or not because high frequency traders hate growing companies with solid earnings and instead have calibrated their algorithms to find companies that are correlated to the phases of the moon and since HFTs control 50% of the market volume, they win most of the time.
In small cap news, JOEZ is set to report tonight and they will likely show more revenue growth, and yet declining earnings as their cost of operations and tax rate have them more set to fail than Amy Winehouse in a "girls I'd like to bone contest." Also, Money McBags favorite KITD had their buy rating reitirated by Janney Capital today. Janney maintained their $13 price target which is only ~50% too low, but remember, analysts are paid to just publish and not to be right or stick their necks out for anything. As Money McBags isn't getting paid for his research and has no constituency to please other than his own trading account and the lovely Teresa Palmer, he is not afraid to make big calls and unless KITD's management is completely and utterly full of shit (10% chance but moving up proportionally with their growing A/R), this company is more undervalued than sharing a chilli dog with Natalie Portman.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
7/7/10 Midafternoon Report: Bulls hit
The market was up today because we are due for a brief rally until we resume our fall in to the abyss like King Midas' son Anchurus (only without saving the Earth) or like Alan Greenspan's reputation. The market has reached the point where some stocks have simply been oversold and with the lack of meaningful macro data and the beginning of earnings season, it should take less to get the market excited in the short term than it takes a teenage boy with a bad case of priapism to get excited. We basically have a tired market that is succumbing to VIX (not unlike a tired Gay succumbs to Dix). Today's rally is being driven by State Street announcing they will beat earnings and by retail sales defying all logic, common sense, and income levels and being estimated to have grown at their fastest pace in 4 years.
The International Council of Shopping Centers (known more familiarly as ICSC or "Who?") preannounced the results of the study they will release tomorrow, in affect scooping themselves in a strategic move to try to keep LeBron James's choice of teams for free agency out of the news and to make the ICSC more of a household acronym than PETA, ROTC, and NAMBLA . The ICSC remarked that retail sales "probably" came in at 3% to 4% growth for the month and will average 4% for the first five months of the year. Of course you all might remember that the ICSC also said Teddy Ruxpin will "probably" make a huge comeback, Walmart shoppers "probably" understand that one size doesn't fit all, and Lindsay Lohan will "probably" show up for her treatment any time now, so buyer beware.
Internationally, Europe has installed a cap on bank bonuses with bankers not allowed to take more than 30% of their bonuses in cash. The remaining 70% will now be awarded in stock, gold, or the still beating hearts of freshly clubbed baby seals. Europe bank stocks are also rallying because the rumor is that the haircuts they will have to take on Spanish bonds will be done by Ken Paves and not some dildo with a flowbee at Supercuts. It was leaked that Spanish bonds will only be written down by 3% and not the presumed 10% to 20% some people estimated while German bonds will get no haircuts and thus will go for the Chrystal Gayle look. In other international news, The Agricultural Bank of China raised $19.2B in their IPO yesterday which gives it a valuation richer than C, GS, or Christina Hendrick's bra.
In US stock news, STT is rallying the entire market as they expect to beat earnings guesses soundly by bringing in $.93 per share vs. guesses of $.72. They also announced a $251 injection of capital to support certain trust funds managed by State Street Global Advisors that engage in securities lending and other types of fraud, I mean portfolio maintenance. In theory, this "mitigates potential liability concerns" unless someone really wanted to sue them because there isn't one financial services company that is not involved in shady activities. In other stock news, Family Dollar dropped ~9% after beating quarterly analyst guesses but giving below consensus guidance. Guidance was for $.46-$.51 per share next Q and guesses were for $.53 while CEO Howard Levine said "The environment remains challenging for consumers, and customers continue to buy close to need, that said, we are being conservative but think ultimately we will do well since we sell cheap shit and people can only afford cheap shit" (though the last part of that quote could have bee made up). The sell off seems overdone to Money McBags but he doesn't follow FDO so he is not sure where comps are trading right now but at the high end their full year guidance is only $.01 below street guesses so either the whisper number on the street was much higher (and thus analysts as usual were scared to stick their necks out) or dropping 9% on guidance a Khagendra Thapa Maga nut hair below guesses is a buying opportunity.
In small cap news everything is up (well everything except for ZAGG). KITD is finally rallying after yesterday when Money McBags said "This is the time to be building a position here even though the market is totally full of shit. You wait for chances like this to buy good companies cheaply." Look, Money McBags knows he talks about this company as if they made blow jobs and caviar, but it is one of his biggest holdings and he thinks it has great long term potential and now it is just trading so fuck cheap that if you're going to buy it, you should have a full position. An interview with their CEO was posted yesterday by an industry follower and it is a great read for those trying to understand exactly what the company does, though it does get a bit technical. For instance you learn of their expansive definition of an enterprise customer, their deeper-in-the stack, multi screen strategy (not to be confused with Lexington Steele's "deeper in the sack, multi-scream" strategy), and that 40%-45% of their business deals with the back end side (which is similar to Alexis Texas as 45% of her work also deals with the back end side).
From a stock perspective, the CEO once again addresses the organic growth rate by saying it has been ~55% of their growth, he mentions that they are able to keep "virtually" all of acquired companies' clients, and he talks about some of the stresses of being a public company especially when your stock is down 40% and investors are breathing down your neck and thus need to be coddled like the lovely Emanuelle Chriqui. He also reaffirms that they will beat $75MM revenue guidance as with their last two acquisition they are near $100MM and says their goal for the next couple of years is to grow their global market share from 15%-20% to 50%. Most interestingly, he talked about their last assrammingly dilutive equity raise where shareholders were treated like Mel Gibson at a gay pride parade by saying:
"The raise was driven by an unsolicited reverse inquiry from a large institutional investor. It was a tough decision to take in the money (given the resultant dilution), but ultimately we felt it was the right thing to do in that it allows management to focus on building our business without the distraction of frequently accessing the capital markets to finance future strategic moves."
This was all very intersting stuff and while there wasn't a ton of new information, it was nice to hear the story again and have guidance confirmed given the assawful stock action of the past month. That said, Money McBags is calling bullshit on the $100MM revenue number. Last month Money McBags made the argument that with the declining Euro and ~70% of their business non-US, the exchange rate should make their topline unattainable. In fact, it could crush next year's revenue as well. The company currently has 23.3MM shares so ~210MM market cap and ~$57MM in cash (Money McBags believes those are the pro-forma numbers after their last equity raise and acquisition, but the cash figure may be closer to ~$30MM), so ~$150MM in enterprise value. With the decline in the Euro, Money McBags estimated that next year's EBITDA could be ~$20MM on the low end but in a best case scenario, he thinks they can earn ~$30MM EBITDA. So even on a worst case scenario they are cheap and in a best case scenario, they are cheaper than a Kevin Federline autographed picture as they are trading at ~5x EBITDA with plenty of cash. If you don't have your position built yet, this is the time to get in. It may drop a bit tomorrow after today's run up, and it may drop a bit more with the market, but this is a solid opportunity to step in to this company as a longterm holding.
And remember WGP is on Facebook now and Twitter as Money McBags embraces social networking as if it were Lauren Conrad.
The International Council of Shopping Centers (known more familiarly as ICSC or "Who?") preannounced the results of the study they will release tomorrow, in affect scooping themselves in a strategic move to try to keep LeBron James's choice of teams for free agency out of the news and to make the ICSC more of a household acronym than PETA, ROTC, and NAMBLA . The ICSC remarked that retail sales "probably" came in at 3% to 4% growth for the month and will average 4% for the first five months of the year. Of course you all might remember that the ICSC also said Teddy Ruxpin will "probably" make a huge comeback, Walmart shoppers "probably" understand that one size doesn't fit all, and Lindsay Lohan will "probably" show up for her treatment any time now, so buyer beware.
Internationally, Europe has installed a cap on bank bonuses with bankers not allowed to take more than 30% of their bonuses in cash. The remaining 70% will now be awarded in stock, gold, or the still beating hearts of freshly clubbed baby seals. Europe bank stocks are also rallying because the rumor is that the haircuts they will have to take on Spanish bonds will be done by Ken Paves and not some dildo with a flowbee at Supercuts. It was leaked that Spanish bonds will only be written down by 3% and not the presumed 10% to 20% some people estimated while German bonds will get no haircuts and thus will go for the Chrystal Gayle look. In other international news, The Agricultural Bank of China raised $19.2B in their IPO yesterday which gives it a valuation richer than C, GS, or Christina Hendrick's bra.
In US stock news, STT is rallying the entire market as they expect to beat earnings guesses soundly by bringing in $.93 per share vs. guesses of $.72. They also announced a $251 injection of capital to support certain trust funds managed by State Street Global Advisors that engage in securities lending and other types of fraud, I mean portfolio maintenance. In theory, this "mitigates potential liability concerns" unless someone really wanted to sue them because there isn't one financial services company that is not involved in shady activities. In other stock news, Family Dollar dropped ~9% after beating quarterly analyst guesses but giving below consensus guidance. Guidance was for $.46-$.51 per share next Q and guesses were for $.53 while CEO Howard Levine said "The environment remains challenging for consumers, and customers continue to buy close to need, that said, we are being conservative but think ultimately we will do well since we sell cheap shit and people can only afford cheap shit" (though the last part of that quote could have bee made up). The sell off seems overdone to Money McBags but he doesn't follow FDO so he is not sure where comps are trading right now but at the high end their full year guidance is only $.01 below street guesses so either the whisper number on the street was much higher (and thus analysts as usual were scared to stick their necks out) or dropping 9% on guidance a Khagendra Thapa Maga nut hair below guesses is a buying opportunity.
In small cap news everything is up (well everything except for ZAGG). KITD is finally rallying after yesterday when Money McBags said "This is the time to be building a position here even though the market is totally full of shit. You wait for chances like this to buy good companies cheaply." Look, Money McBags knows he talks about this company as if they made blow jobs and caviar, but it is one of his biggest holdings and he thinks it has great long term potential and now it is just trading so fuck cheap that if you're going to buy it, you should have a full position. An interview with their CEO was posted yesterday by an industry follower and it is a great read for those trying to understand exactly what the company does, though it does get a bit technical. For instance you learn of their expansive definition of an enterprise customer, their deeper-in-the stack, multi screen strategy (not to be confused with Lexington Steele's "deeper in the sack, multi-scream" strategy), and that 40%-45% of their business deals with the back end side (which is similar to Alexis Texas as 45% of her work also deals with the back end side).
From a stock perspective, the CEO once again addresses the organic growth rate by saying it has been ~55% of their growth, he mentions that they are able to keep "virtually" all of acquired companies' clients, and he talks about some of the stresses of being a public company especially when your stock is down 40% and investors are breathing down your neck and thus need to be coddled like the lovely Emanuelle Chriqui. He also reaffirms that they will beat $75MM revenue guidance as with their last two acquisition they are near $100MM and says their goal for the next couple of years is to grow their global market share from 15%-20% to 50%. Most interestingly, he talked about their last assrammingly dilutive equity raise where shareholders were treated like Mel Gibson at a gay pride parade by saying:
"The raise was driven by an unsolicited reverse inquiry from a large institutional investor. It was a tough decision to take in the money (given the resultant dilution), but ultimately we felt it was the right thing to do in that it allows management to focus on building our business without the distraction of frequently accessing the capital markets to finance future strategic moves."
This was all very intersting stuff and while there wasn't a ton of new information, it was nice to hear the story again and have guidance confirmed given the assawful stock action of the past month. That said, Money McBags is calling bullshit on the $100MM revenue number. Last month Money McBags made the argument that with the declining Euro and ~70% of their business non-US, the exchange rate should make their topline unattainable. In fact, it could crush next year's revenue as well. The company currently has 23.3MM shares so ~210MM market cap and ~$57MM in cash (Money McBags believes those are the pro-forma numbers after their last equity raise and acquisition, but the cash figure may be closer to ~$30MM), so ~$150MM in enterprise value. With the decline in the Euro, Money McBags estimated that next year's EBITDA could be ~$20MM on the low end but in a best case scenario, he thinks they can earn ~$30MM EBITDA. So even on a worst case scenario they are cheap and in a best case scenario, they are cheaper than a Kevin Federline autographed picture as they are trading at ~5x EBITDA with plenty of cash. If you don't have your position built yet, this is the time to get in. It may drop a bit tomorrow after today's run up, and it may drop a bit more with the market, but this is a solid opportunity to step in to this company as a longterm holding.
And remember WGP is on Facebook now and Twitter as Money McBags embraces social networking as if it were Lauren Conrad.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
7/6/10 Midafternoon Report: Heat wave melts market rally, or maybe it was common sense
Holy crap is it hot out today. It's so hot that the only difference between the East Coast and hell is that Jim Cramer isn't in hell, yet. Anyway, the market was rebounding a bit after downing several vials of muscle relaxant to help cure the severe case of lockjaw it developed from going down so much and so frequently over the past few weeks, but that all changed in the afternoon when reality sunk back in to investors' portfolios. While this was likely a minor temporary relief rally, like Mel Gibson's career after his first anti-semitic tirade but before his second tirade where he told his wife that that he was going to burn the house down among other colorful and completely insane ramblings, you should all trade in to it carefully. And yes, things have now gotten so bad that Money McBags is forced to use Mel Gibson's racist rants as analogies for the market, so we've got that going for us, but at least we'll always have the dot-com boom.
The main problem today is that macro news is lighter than Suze Orman's resume and that is why the market tried to rally a bit. The ISM released their non-manufacturing index which measures 90% of the legal economic activity in the US and to the surprise of no one (other than analysts, economists, and CNBC), it fell to 53.8 which was a 4 month low and below the 55 guess of analysts. Out of the 11 metrics the ISM measures, 10 slowed down and one stayed the same (something called Supplier Deliveries, and in this economy all deliveries are being supplied in the rear).
Internationally, Australia kept interest rates at 4.5% claiming “uncertainty about the pace of future global growth." Though if you read the fine print, they say the uncertainty is whether it will be 0%, negative, or global economy crushing. Finally, the market waits for Thursday's ECB policy meeting where Jean-Claude Trichet will try to the soothe the market's fear of european banks failing by assuring them that stress tests will be run and then offering the market a nice sitz bath. While it's nice that the ECB is contemplating stress tests (which will no doubt show that european banks need to add more fish oil to their diets, start running for 30 minutes a day, and clean up their fucking balance sheets to try to get healthy), there is absolutely no way that european banks don't get a clean bill of health and there is absolutley no way the ECB's assessment will be correct. 151 banks just rushed to get funding from the ECB which is the most in a year and if that is a signal of health, than my name isn't Money McBags.
In large cap stocks, a report from the Semiconductor Industry Association showed chip sales were up 47% last month thanks to demand from China, India, and the Lawson family. This has helped lift chip stocks and regardless of the economy, Money McBags is a believer that the pace of technological advancement will continue to accelerate and thus having some semi exposure in your portfolio should be a longterm benefit like windpower should be a benefit to the environment, saving should be a benefit to the economy, and a tracheotomy to Lady Gaga should be a benefit to ending noise pollution. Also, BP was up today after an upgrade by RBS from "Hold" to "Buy." In addition to that upgrade, RBS announced they will be dropping the "R" from their name to hereby just go as "BS" and are retroactively initiating coverage on Enron with an "Accumulate" and Kate Beckinsale with a "Sell."
In small cap news, it is ugly out there. Money McBags favorites KITD and KIRK continue to get pounded even though they are so cheap that if they were materials, not even China would use them. KITD is a bit funky because so much of their revenue is Euro driven so Money McBags has no feel for their upcoming revenue because a lot will depend on the average fx rate they use in conversion as well as the actual revenue split. So he expects them to miss analyst revenue estimates in the short term but long term, this company is growing 50%+ ex. currency effects, it is in a fast growing market, and they are among the biggest players with cash to spend to continue the roll up. This is the time to be building a position here even though the market is totally full of shit. You wait for chances like this to buy good companies cheaply, same with KIRK, so keep KITD and KIRK front of mind.
One interesting name which continues to fall and is becoming more appealing is IMAX. Money McBags broke them down a few months ago but basically they have been able to grow rapidly due to a JV theater strategy that has allowed them to open more theatres and take less risk. The did $42MM of adjusted EBITDA in Q1 but that was driven by a little something called Avatar which has now passed through the theater system like a kidney stone through a urethra only with less pain and with more aliens.
In the quarter prior to last, the company did ~$20MM in EBITDA (so $80MM annual run rate) and estimates are for $100M both this year and next year with the Avatar business leaving but new theaters picking up that lost growth. The current EV is ~$800MM so the company is trading as 8x to 10x EV/EBITDA which isn't terribly cheap on the high end, but at the low end, it is getting to be attractive (not quite Alice Eve attractive, but probably Amber Lancaster attractive, and Money Mcbags is ok with that). The problems are that there has been a lot of retail money in this name which needs to get out, there is fear of pricing pressure killing their high ticket premiums, it is unknown how many JVs they opened this Q, and the business still relies on content and content is fickle (as noted by the brilliant WGP which every now and then misses the mark, like perhaps today, but in Money McBags' defense it is very very hot).
The most recent Shrek movie underperformed because at some point even little kids can only take so much of Mike Myers so that, on the heels of Avatar going CGbye, is setting up IMAX for a top line miss. Today, the stock was down 10%+ on no news other than pretty decent numbers for the latest Twilight movie which is sure to slowly, unoriginally, and vapidly kill pre-teen brain cells everywhere. IMAX brought in $9MM from that likely abortionally bad movie in the opening week which is certainly at least as good as they could have expected.
Look, Money McBags could talk about EBITDA, revenue growth, and Ashley Greene in 3D, until he turns bluer in the face than a depressed smurf but the issue with IMAX stock is not the fundamentals, it's the investor base. The stock was a high flyer, a momentum trendy name that drew in a lot of retail investors who institutional investors and hedge funds were able to continue to milk until deciding to blow out. Basically, once Avatar left and the story went from "we have the hottest fucking movie in history in a unique format" to "come watch an animated donkey in 3D," growth investors ran. They bought the rumor and sold the news as if the news had slept with Magic Johnson. So now IMAX is in that weird stage where momentum investors have left and it is not yet cheap enough for value investors to buy. That thesis makes less fundamental sense than string theory, but it is what it is. So with institutions having puked this out, retail sellers are now taking their losses and when they wash out, value investors may start to kick the tires, check the oil, and make sure all of the company's johnson rods are in order.
So look, Money McBags thinks this company is certainly on pace to do $80MM-$100MM of EBITDA this year and will likely at least hit those same numbers next year as JVs grow and people take even fewer vacations and thus spend more money on cheap family entertainment. So if you are a longterm owner, you don't need to ditch anything here. That said, this should trade down with the market as people take gains and value investors probably won't get interested until ~6x EV/EBITDA and if they earn $80MM-$100MM of EBITDA, that is still 25%-40% down to go, so you can probably still find a better entry point. Now it is possible for the company to earn much more than $100MM of EBITDA next year, but one has to make a few leaps of faith on JV openings, content, and the economy not going to $0, to get there, which is why Money McBags prefers to use the safer $80MM-$100MM run rate. The company basically needs to show they can perform without Avatar and while Money McBags thinks it is likely they will continue to drive traffic, he would hold off buying for another 20% down (and if it rockets up and you miss it, you need to be ok with that) because no matter how much you try there are four things you shouldn't do in life: Spit in to the wind, start a land war in Asia, forget to look for the Adam's apple, and fight the market. So keep IMAX on your watch list and get ready to pounce when it washes out.
And don't forget, When Genius Prevailed recently joined Facebook to make it easier to spread the gospel.
The main problem today is that macro news is lighter than Suze Orman's resume and that is why the market tried to rally a bit. The ISM released their non-manufacturing index which measures 90% of the legal economic activity in the US and to the surprise of no one (other than analysts, economists, and CNBC), it fell to 53.8 which was a 4 month low and below the 55 guess of analysts. Out of the 11 metrics the ISM measures, 10 slowed down and one stayed the same (something called Supplier Deliveries, and in this economy all deliveries are being supplied in the rear).
Internationally, Australia kept interest rates at 4.5% claiming “uncertainty about the pace of future global growth." Though if you read the fine print, they say the uncertainty is whether it will be 0%, negative, or global economy crushing. Finally, the market waits for Thursday's ECB policy meeting where Jean-Claude Trichet will try to the soothe the market's fear of european banks failing by assuring them that stress tests will be run and then offering the market a nice sitz bath. While it's nice that the ECB is contemplating stress tests (which will no doubt show that european banks need to add more fish oil to their diets, start running for 30 minutes a day, and clean up their fucking balance sheets to try to get healthy), there is absolutely no way that european banks don't get a clean bill of health and there is absolutley no way the ECB's assessment will be correct. 151 banks just rushed to get funding from the ECB which is the most in a year and if that is a signal of health, than my name isn't Money McBags.
In large cap stocks, a report from the Semiconductor Industry Association showed chip sales were up 47% last month thanks to demand from China, India, and the Lawson family. This has helped lift chip stocks and regardless of the economy, Money McBags is a believer that the pace of technological advancement will continue to accelerate and thus having some semi exposure in your portfolio should be a longterm benefit like windpower should be a benefit to the environment, saving should be a benefit to the economy, and a tracheotomy to Lady Gaga should be a benefit to ending noise pollution. Also, BP was up today after an upgrade by RBS from "Hold" to "Buy." In addition to that upgrade, RBS announced they will be dropping the "R" from their name to hereby just go as "BS" and are retroactively initiating coverage on Enron with an "Accumulate" and Kate Beckinsale with a "Sell."
In small cap news, it is ugly out there. Money McBags favorites KITD and KIRK continue to get pounded even though they are so cheap that if they were materials, not even China would use them. KITD is a bit funky because so much of their revenue is Euro driven so Money McBags has no feel for their upcoming revenue because a lot will depend on the average fx rate they use in conversion as well as the actual revenue split. So he expects them to miss analyst revenue estimates in the short term but long term, this company is growing 50%+ ex. currency effects, it is in a fast growing market, and they are among the biggest players with cash to spend to continue the roll up. This is the time to be building a position here even though the market is totally full of shit. You wait for chances like this to buy good companies cheaply, same with KIRK, so keep KITD and KIRK front of mind.
One interesting name which continues to fall and is becoming more appealing is IMAX. Money McBags broke them down a few months ago but basically they have been able to grow rapidly due to a JV theater strategy that has allowed them to open more theatres and take less risk. The did $42MM of adjusted EBITDA in Q1 but that was driven by a little something called Avatar which has now passed through the theater system like a kidney stone through a urethra only with less pain and with more aliens.
In the quarter prior to last, the company did ~$20MM in EBITDA (so $80MM annual run rate) and estimates are for $100M both this year and next year with the Avatar business leaving but new theaters picking up that lost growth. The current EV is ~$800MM so the company is trading as 8x to 10x EV/EBITDA which isn't terribly cheap on the high end, but at the low end, it is getting to be attractive (not quite Alice Eve attractive, but probably Amber Lancaster attractive, and Money Mcbags is ok with that). The problems are that there has been a lot of retail money in this name which needs to get out, there is fear of pricing pressure killing their high ticket premiums, it is unknown how many JVs they opened this Q, and the business still relies on content and content is fickle (as noted by the brilliant WGP which every now and then misses the mark, like perhaps today, but in Money McBags' defense it is very very hot).
The most recent Shrek movie underperformed because at some point even little kids can only take so much of Mike Myers so that, on the heels of Avatar going CGbye, is setting up IMAX for a top line miss. Today, the stock was down 10%+ on no news other than pretty decent numbers for the latest Twilight movie which is sure to slowly, unoriginally, and vapidly kill pre-teen brain cells everywhere. IMAX brought in $9MM from that likely abortionally bad movie in the opening week which is certainly at least as good as they could have expected.
Look, Money McBags could talk about EBITDA, revenue growth, and Ashley Greene in 3D, until he turns bluer in the face than a depressed smurf but the issue with IMAX stock is not the fundamentals, it's the investor base. The stock was a high flyer, a momentum trendy name that drew in a lot of retail investors who institutional investors and hedge funds were able to continue to milk until deciding to blow out. Basically, once Avatar left and the story went from "we have the hottest fucking movie in history in a unique format" to "come watch an animated donkey in 3D," growth investors ran. They bought the rumor and sold the news as if the news had slept with Magic Johnson. So now IMAX is in that weird stage where momentum investors have left and it is not yet cheap enough for value investors to buy. That thesis makes less fundamental sense than string theory, but it is what it is. So with institutions having puked this out, retail sellers are now taking their losses and when they wash out, value investors may start to kick the tires, check the oil, and make sure all of the company's johnson rods are in order.
So look, Money McBags thinks this company is certainly on pace to do $80MM-$100MM of EBITDA this year and will likely at least hit those same numbers next year as JVs grow and people take even fewer vacations and thus spend more money on cheap family entertainment. So if you are a longterm owner, you don't need to ditch anything here. That said, this should trade down with the market as people take gains and value investors probably won't get interested until ~6x EV/EBITDA and if they earn $80MM-$100MM of EBITDA, that is still 25%-40% down to go, so you can probably still find a better entry point. Now it is possible for the company to earn much more than $100MM of EBITDA next year, but one has to make a few leaps of faith on JV openings, content, and the economy not going to $0, to get there, which is why Money McBags prefers to use the safer $80MM-$100MM run rate. The company basically needs to show they can perform without Avatar and while Money McBags thinks it is likely they will continue to drive traffic, he would hold off buying for another 20% down (and if it rockets up and you miss it, you need to be ok with that) because no matter how much you try there are four things you shouldn't do in life: Spit in to the wind, start a land war in Asia, forget to look for the Adam's apple, and fight the market. So keep IMAX on your watch list and get ready to pounce when it washes out.
And don't forget, When Genius Prevailed recently joined Facebook to make it easier to spread the gospel.
Monday, June 21, 2010
6/21/10 Midafternoon Report: China drops its peg, exposes its growing yuan
The market rallied today in the morning like a chubby chaser with a bottle of crisco on his way to a Peter Paul Rubens exhibit until it faded in the afternoon thanks to common sense and volume. Rallying the market in the morning was news that China is going to unpeg their currency from the dollar thanks to pressure from global leaders who felt that the currency peg gave China an unfair trade advantage in selling their cheap shit even cheaper. The announcement comes ahead of the G-20 summit in Toronto this weekend where finance ministers and central bankers from around the world will no doubt descend upon the NSFW Brass Rail and flaunt their ability to negotiate currency while manipulating bottoming assets (of course after the EU's latest bailout, finance ministers will certainly wonder if that is a printing press in EU central bank governor Jean Claude-Trichet's pants or if he is just happy to see them). While it's good that China is willing to let the renminbi/yuan float (and if anyone can explain to Money McBags the difference between "renminbi" and "yuan," other than several letters, he'll send you a free autographed poster of Gong Li), China has stated that they will do it gradually so as to avoid a potential destabilization bubble like what happened in Japan when the yen was unpegged from the dollar in the mid-1980s or like what happened in Britney Spears' pants after she was unpegged from Justin Timberlake. With the return of a "managed floating rate," the yuan/renmindbi/johnson rod was up ~40 bps against the dollar to its highest level in five years which means happy endings just got a little less happy for all of us.
In US macro news, less is happening today than on a Bernie Madoff trading desk in 2006 or in a eunuch's pants. The SEC is going after a firm called ICP Asset Management for manipulating CDOs in ways that would have made even Meggan Mallone blush. ICP is accused of pumpng up CDO prices to increase the value of their funds, pushing profits to their owners rather than their investors, and being what I believe the SEC called "a bunch of dicks." In other news, the proposed Durbin Bill which is supposed to keep credit card companies from charging merchants exorbitant interchange fees as a way for those credit card companies to have adequate reserves when their customers charge off due to the high prices the customers have to pay for goods which of course are partly caused by merchants raising prices to make up for high credit card interchange fees (it is the least fun daisy chain Money McBags has ever encountered), is rumored to be losing steam. News today is that the bill will take out "network fees" from interchange and thus credit card companies will still be able to charge retailers the fuck out of transactions due to a semantics loophole. The result of all of this is that V and MA shot up at midday while politicians once again do their best to to take the bite out of their bark or the steam out of their cleveland steamer if you will.
In stock news Alcoa ran up today as high frequency algorithmic traders have stumbled on to the phonebook approach and are just buying the first company listed alphabetically (though a smiliar strategy worked for Malachi Constant). Actually, AA is up as over the weekend their CEO said he expects demand to grow 10% with half of that coming from China and with China releasing their yuan today, demand for imports in China should improve. In other stocks, BP is down again today because the stock hasn't reached zero yet and Goldman Sachs cut their earnings forecast for banks causing banks to rally as investors realize trading against GS' recommendations and thus WITH GS' ACTUAL BOOK is the best way to make money. GS front runs and ditches shit to clients once it has appreciated more often than marginal celebrities come out as bisexual (and today it was some singer named Vanessa Carlton who claimed she is bisexual which would have made Money McBags excited if he knew who Vanessa Carlton was and if she didn't look like the man in the relationship). Anyway, the short GS recommendation, long their actual book trade wins again.
In small cap news a Money McBags favorite KITD was down 9% on no news that Money McBags could find though he wouldn't be shocked if they were getting ready to dilute shareholders another 25% just because they can. This company is more frustrating than a one-armed man trying to solve a rubik's cube. That said, Money McBags still believes in the long term growth story so is not sweating their huge Euro exposure and their predilection to raise equity as a daily operating procedure. Money McBags is short on time today, so no detailed analysis of any small cap names but if the market has topped out here with the sell off in the afternoon (and Money McBags is no chartist, though he will technically analyze Hilary Rhoda's bollinger bands if need be), then he would be selling his illiquid names in to the downturn.
In US macro news, less is happening today than on a Bernie Madoff trading desk in 2006 or in a eunuch's pants. The SEC is going after a firm called ICP Asset Management for manipulating CDOs in ways that would have made even Meggan Mallone blush. ICP is accused of pumpng up CDO prices to increase the value of their funds, pushing profits to their owners rather than their investors, and being what I believe the SEC called "a bunch of dicks." In other news, the proposed Durbin Bill which is supposed to keep credit card companies from charging merchants exorbitant interchange fees as a way for those credit card companies to have adequate reserves when their customers charge off due to the high prices the customers have to pay for goods which of course are partly caused by merchants raising prices to make up for high credit card interchange fees (it is the least fun daisy chain Money McBags has ever encountered), is rumored to be losing steam. News today is that the bill will take out "network fees" from interchange and thus credit card companies will still be able to charge retailers the fuck out of transactions due to a semantics loophole. The result of all of this is that V and MA shot up at midday while politicians once again do their best to to take the bite out of their bark or the steam out of their cleveland steamer if you will.
In stock news Alcoa ran up today as high frequency algorithmic traders have stumbled on to the phonebook approach and are just buying the first company listed alphabetically (though a smiliar strategy worked for Malachi Constant). Actually, AA is up as over the weekend their CEO said he expects demand to grow 10% with half of that coming from China and with China releasing their yuan today, demand for imports in China should improve. In other stocks, BP is down again today because the stock hasn't reached zero yet and Goldman Sachs cut their earnings forecast for banks causing banks to rally as investors realize trading against GS' recommendations and thus WITH GS' ACTUAL BOOK is the best way to make money. GS front runs and ditches shit to clients once it has appreciated more often than marginal celebrities come out as bisexual (and today it was some singer named Vanessa Carlton who claimed she is bisexual which would have made Money McBags excited if he knew who Vanessa Carlton was and if she didn't look like the man in the relationship). Anyway, the short GS recommendation, long their actual book trade wins again.
In small cap news a Money McBags favorite KITD was down 9% on no news that Money McBags could find though he wouldn't be shocked if they were getting ready to dilute shareholders another 25% just because they can. This company is more frustrating than a one-armed man trying to solve a rubik's cube. That said, Money McBags still believes in the long term growth story so is not sweating their huge Euro exposure and their predilection to raise equity as a daily operating procedure. Money McBags is short on time today, so no detailed analysis of any small cap names but if the market has topped out here with the sell off in the afternoon (and Money McBags is no chartist, though he will technically analyze Hilary Rhoda's bollinger bands if need be), then he would be selling his illiquid names in to the downturn.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
6/10/10 Midevening Report: Market rallies in anticipation of tomorrow's sell off
Readers, Money McBags apologizes for his absence yesterday, unfortunately he has a life outside of the great When Genius Prevailed and that life required him to spend all day watching Anna Paquin scenes now that she is oh so comfortable with her bisexuality, so you can't really fault him for that. Anyway, today the market seems to be running like a lobotomized senior citizen with an advanced case of alzheimers as it forgets Europe is about to collapse under a pile of oversized debt, the US unemployment rate is stagnating like the rebuilding of the Twin Towers, and the great Hannah Hilton remains retired. That said, short term macro news is pushing the markets to new heights, levels it hasn't seen since at least last Friday, so ring those bells because the economy is all of a sudden back (until tomorrow).
Driving the market up today was that the ECB raised their growth forecasts, China showed an increasing trade surplus, and clothes-less emperors are now becoming the rage (because despite today's numbers, the economy still has no pants). The ECB said GDP growth for 2010 will now be 1% which is above the .8% they had repviously predicted and above the potential 0% on which most investors are betting. While they raised 2010 GDP forecasts, they lowered 2011 from 1.5% to 1.2% which means the absolute level of GDP at the end of 2011 is now expected to be lower than it previously was (since multiplying last year's GDP by 1% and then 1.2% yields a lower number than multiplying it by the previous forecast of .8% and then 1.5%), but why let math get in the way of a market rally? Honestly, if logic, common sense, and facts mattered then the markets would be efficient and Burton Malkiel would be so celebrated that he would be applauded by young and old on his daily random walks. In other big news, China's trade surplus rose in May giving investors hope that China can keep fueling an expanding global economy. Imports and exports both grew by ~50% in May driven largely by an increase in purchases of lead paint to go with an increase in sales of toys. With a $19.5B trade surplus for the month, the Chinese government should get loved for a long time at the Beijing Rick's Cabaret but is getting even more pressure to let the renminbi float like Kelly Madison's renminbis in the deep end of the pool in her San Fernando Valley abode. Finally, Japan revised their GDP upwards from 4.9% to 5% as they forgot to include the new buttress they put up around Tokyo to defend Godzilla's impending attack.
While international news seemed to be strong, US macro news was mixed at best, which has left Money McBags scratching his head over today's rally (though it could also be the lice). The good news is that the budget deficit fell to $136B (and for those of you scoring at home $136B might be more than the price of all of the tea in China) thanks to higher tax receipts. Money McBags is not clear where the higher tax receipts came from as unemployment has remained the same so perhaps it is from people filing their quarterly capital gains taxes which should have been higher with the strong market rally which has now fallen faster and harder than Money McBags did for the lovely Amanda Seyfried. So we've got that going for us. In other US news, the trade deficit widened and housing foreclosures fell largely because banks have run out of repo men as bank repossesions reached a record high last month. While fewer foreclosures are good for the markets, the reason for it is as positive as saying fewer people walked out of the last Robin Williams movie (since of course fewer people attended). Finally, new claims for unemployment came out today and were worse than analyst guesses as claims fell by 3k to 456k. Making things more confusing was that last week's new claims for unemployment were 453k so once again the (No) Labor Department has either confused the basic tenets of addition, lost some beads off of their abacus (no doubt purposely taken off to replace one of the office's missing anal beads that likely got lodged in Hilda Solis' shapely derriere during the department's recently passed Memorial day picnic), or is just MAKING THE FUCKING NUMBERS UP. Last week Money McBags wrote how 460k -10k somehow = 453k and now the (No) Labor department is at it again by restating last week's number from 453k to 459k, which is how this week we get 453k - 3k = 456k. So last week's disappointing number was actually more disappointing than previously thought (which Money McBags predicted) which makes the new claims for unemployment numbers now less believable than Ellen Degeneres as a romantic lead (like in the ironically named Mr. Wrong, and of course what was wrong with Mr. was that he peed standing up). The market seems to think that continuing claims falling by 255k to 4.46MM is good news except for the fact that: 1. It's not clear that the 255k drop wasn't just people exhuasting their benefits, having been unemployed longer than the making of The Man Who Killed Don Quixote has been in production. and 2. 4.46MM people unemployed is still a fuckload of people. But hey, rally on my freinds, rally on.
In stock news, just about everything was up except for GS which has broken through their $135 support level on their way towards extinction. It will be interesting to see how aggressive the government goes after itself (I mean Goldman) because even Meagan Cheung could find fraud on their trading desks. Also, BP rose 6% after Jim Cramer finally said to sell which once again proves his ability to be negatively correlated with the markets. That said, Money McBags wouldn't go near BP unless he were wearing an extra strength contamination suit and had a lifetime supply of Lamivudine.
In small cap news, KITD hit its first short squeeze and jumped 8%+ and Money McBags hopes this is the first of many while MLNK was up a bit after crapping all over itself with yesterday's earnings announcement. Money McBags is short on time today but tomorrow he will break down MLNK's shit awful Q where their EBITDA dropped in half, their cash flow barely broke even, and they continued to pawn it off on new business taking longer to start-up. Wow. You know what Money McBags calls it when your new business takes longer to develop? Deep doodoo, and yes that is a bit of a technical term.
Driving the market up today was that the ECB raised their growth forecasts, China showed an increasing trade surplus, and clothes-less emperors are now becoming the rage (because despite today's numbers, the economy still has no pants). The ECB said GDP growth for 2010 will now be 1% which is above the .8% they had repviously predicted and above the potential 0% on which most investors are betting. While they raised 2010 GDP forecasts, they lowered 2011 from 1.5% to 1.2% which means the absolute level of GDP at the end of 2011 is now expected to be lower than it previously was (since multiplying last year's GDP by 1% and then 1.2% yields a lower number than multiplying it by the previous forecast of .8% and then 1.5%), but why let math get in the way of a market rally? Honestly, if logic, common sense, and facts mattered then the markets would be efficient and Burton Malkiel would be so celebrated that he would be applauded by young and old on his daily random walks. In other big news, China's trade surplus rose in May giving investors hope that China can keep fueling an expanding global economy. Imports and exports both grew by ~50% in May driven largely by an increase in purchases of lead paint to go with an increase in sales of toys. With a $19.5B trade surplus for the month, the Chinese government should get loved for a long time at the Beijing Rick's Cabaret but is getting even more pressure to let the renminbi float like Kelly Madison's renminbis in the deep end of the pool in her San Fernando Valley abode. Finally, Japan revised their GDP upwards from 4.9% to 5% as they forgot to include the new buttress they put up around Tokyo to defend Godzilla's impending attack.
While international news seemed to be strong, US macro news was mixed at best, which has left Money McBags scratching his head over today's rally (though it could also be the lice). The good news is that the budget deficit fell to $136B (and for those of you scoring at home $136B might be more than the price of all of the tea in China) thanks to higher tax receipts. Money McBags is not clear where the higher tax receipts came from as unemployment has remained the same so perhaps it is from people filing their quarterly capital gains taxes which should have been higher with the strong market rally which has now fallen faster and harder than Money McBags did for the lovely Amanda Seyfried. So we've got that going for us. In other US news, the trade deficit widened and housing foreclosures fell largely because banks have run out of repo men as bank repossesions reached a record high last month. While fewer foreclosures are good for the markets, the reason for it is as positive as saying fewer people walked out of the last Robin Williams movie (since of course fewer people attended). Finally, new claims for unemployment came out today and were worse than analyst guesses as claims fell by 3k to 456k. Making things more confusing was that last week's new claims for unemployment were 453k so once again the (No) Labor Department has either confused the basic tenets of addition, lost some beads off of their abacus (no doubt purposely taken off to replace one of the office's missing anal beads that likely got lodged in Hilda Solis' shapely derriere during the department's recently passed Memorial day picnic), or is just MAKING THE FUCKING NUMBERS UP. Last week Money McBags wrote how 460k -10k somehow = 453k and now the (No) Labor department is at it again by restating last week's number from 453k to 459k, which is how this week we get 453k - 3k = 456k. So last week's disappointing number was actually more disappointing than previously thought (which Money McBags predicted) which makes the new claims for unemployment numbers now less believable than Ellen Degeneres as a romantic lead (like in the ironically named Mr. Wrong, and of course what was wrong with Mr. was that he peed standing up). The market seems to think that continuing claims falling by 255k to 4.46MM is good news except for the fact that: 1. It's not clear that the 255k drop wasn't just people exhuasting their benefits, having been unemployed longer than the making of The Man Who Killed Don Quixote has been in production. and 2. 4.46MM people unemployed is still a fuckload of people. But hey, rally on my freinds, rally on.
In stock news, just about everything was up except for GS which has broken through their $135 support level on their way towards extinction. It will be interesting to see how aggressive the government goes after itself (I mean Goldman) because even Meagan Cheung could find fraud on their trading desks. Also, BP rose 6% after Jim Cramer finally said to sell which once again proves his ability to be negatively correlated with the markets. That said, Money McBags wouldn't go near BP unless he were wearing an extra strength contamination suit and had a lifetime supply of Lamivudine.
In small cap news, KITD hit its first short squeeze and jumped 8%+ and Money McBags hopes this is the first of many while MLNK was up a bit after crapping all over itself with yesterday's earnings announcement. Money McBags is short on time today but tomorrow he will break down MLNK's shit awful Q where their EBITDA dropped in half, their cash flow barely broke even, and they continued to pawn it off on new business taking longer to start-up. Wow. You know what Money McBags calls it when your new business takes longer to develop? Deep doodoo, and yes that is a bit of a technical term.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
6/8/10 Midevening Report: Bernanke speech fails to significantly rally the market, says he'll overpromise more next time
The market was relatively quiet today as there was a lack of macro news though Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was out late Monday saying: "My best guess is that we’ll have a continued recovery, but it won’t feel terrific like a blumpkin from Sara Varone followed by a nice wipe with that oh so soft aloe infused Cottonelle. Instead, it will feel more like having your nut hairs pulled out while listening to the smooth adult contemporary sounds of Sade". Ok, Money McBags made part of that up but that's not the point, the point is, Bernanke is hedging on this recovery like he just bought FAZ in his IRA. While he says the economy won't likely have a double dip recession, he did not say it wouldn't have a single dip recession followed by a falling off the cliff depression, so it's merely a matter of semantics. Bernanke also dusted off his Phillips curve (though it wasn't as curvy as Kimberly Phillips) and added that the central bank would raise rates before the economy returns to full employment, which should be any century now. That's great, but Money McBags would like to know what the full employment rate is? Is it 4%, 6%, or whatever proof the whiskey was that Milton Friedman was drinking when he came up with NAIRU (seriously Milt, you couldn't have come up with a catchier name than the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment? Really? That name could put Ritalin out of business because just reading it has to make even the most hyperactive person drowsy.)? The point is, the full employment rate is a bogus hurdle as there is no set rate so saying rates will rise before we reach that level is as helpful as saying you'll stop running when you catch the horizon. With the stimulus funds coming to an end over the next few quarters and the economy already starting to show signs of coming down from its stimulus induced bender where it got drunk off of bail outs and hand outs and now finds itself waking up in a pool of its own spending while dry humping Greece's Aegean coast to the sweet whisperings of Benjamin S. Bernanke and and his magical money making machine, the economy is in a precarious position (though not as precarious of a position as Kirstie Alley's girdle).
Internationally, the new government in Hungary has announced a set of austerity measures aimed at solving their debt crisis. The austerity measures include cutting public wages, overhauling the tax system, banning mortgage lending in foreign currencies, and stopping free cookie day at the National Assembly. Also, the European Union's finance ministers met in Luxembourg with the most important outcomes being an agreement to allow tighter oversight on countries suspected of falsifying economic data and an agreement that Ginger Spice was the hottest of the Spice Girls.
In stock news, AAPL introduced a $199 iPhone which has a front facing camera that should now allow users to masturbate on chatroulette wherever they may be. The new iPhone is slimmer than the previous version, has better picture quality, and doesn't insist on cuddling when you are done with it. In other stock news, MCD had better than guessed at growth for the month of May of 4.8% worldwide thanks to the fact that they sell cheap shit and people can only afford to eat cheap shit. The company announced the falling Euro would impact yearly earnings but announced that to make up for those lost earning they are forming a partnership with American Heart Association to get a portion of the profits from all angiograms caused by eating their food. Finally, analysts were busy today with INTC downgraded by SIG to neutral because the analyst had to do something to try to drum up trading business for SIG and Dick Bove, who never saw a financial stock he didn't like and didn't understand, cut his price target at JP Morgan from jizztastic to just ballticklingly good.
In small cap stocks, Money McBags favorite KITD continues to get pounded like Alexis Texas on payday. With ~70% of their revenues coming from Europe, topline should be impacted by the 15%-20% drop in the Euro with investors seemingly betting on worse. Given that, it is difficult to come up with a short term valuation for KITD as the Euro appears to be falling off worse than proper grammar or Britney Spears' top. Last Q, the $/Euro exchange rate was somewhere around $1.38 and this Q, it's likely going to be around $1.25, and after that, who knows? So lets take a worse case scenario where we assume the exchange goes to parity. So that would be a 28% drop in the exchange rate from last Q. Money McBags thinks at the high end KITD can do $150MM of revenue next year, but let's call it $130MM because of the global uncertainty. The thing is, that number was derived off of the old $/EU exchange so if we knock 70% of their revenue (their EU exposed revenue) by 28%, revenue decreases by ~$25MM. So insted of $130MM, a worst case scenario yields revenue of $105MM and at 20% EBITDA margins, that is ~$21MM EBITDA. The company currently has a market cap of $210MM but they have somewhere around $30MM in cash after their last deal so they have an enterprise value of roughly $180MM and thus are currently at a worst case scenario of ~9x EV/EBITDA and topline growth in that scenario would still be ~20% (and dollar euro parity is almost as bad a scenario for the financial markets as having your daughter bring home Jordan Van Der Sloot for Thanksgiving Break). Of course all of this assumes that their costs and revenue are tied together so if the euro drops by 28% the associated costs with that will drop by 28% and thus margins will remain intact. The point is, Money McBags still likes this company longterm as they are in a rapidly growing space that is going to continue to grow for several years, but there are certainly short term currency issues. However, they are diversifying their revenues in to the US and Asia so as to become less dependent on Europe so while things look bad now, in the long run this company should be fine. With uncertainty comes opportunity and it is getting to the point where this company is just getting stupid cheap.
Internationally, the new government in Hungary has announced a set of austerity measures aimed at solving their debt crisis. The austerity measures include cutting public wages, overhauling the tax system, banning mortgage lending in foreign currencies, and stopping free cookie day at the National Assembly. Also, the European Union's finance ministers met in Luxembourg with the most important outcomes being an agreement to allow tighter oversight on countries suspected of falsifying economic data and an agreement that Ginger Spice was the hottest of the Spice Girls.
In stock news, AAPL introduced a $199 iPhone which has a front facing camera that should now allow users to masturbate on chatroulette wherever they may be. The new iPhone is slimmer than the previous version, has better picture quality, and doesn't insist on cuddling when you are done with it. In other stock news, MCD had better than guessed at growth for the month of May of 4.8% worldwide thanks to the fact that they sell cheap shit and people can only afford to eat cheap shit. The company announced the falling Euro would impact yearly earnings but announced that to make up for those lost earning they are forming a partnership with American Heart Association to get a portion of the profits from all angiograms caused by eating their food. Finally, analysts were busy today with INTC downgraded by SIG to neutral because the analyst had to do something to try to drum up trading business for SIG and Dick Bove, who never saw a financial stock he didn't like and didn't understand, cut his price target at JP Morgan from jizztastic to just ballticklingly good.
In small cap stocks, Money McBags favorite KITD continues to get pounded like Alexis Texas on payday. With ~70% of their revenues coming from Europe, topline should be impacted by the 15%-20% drop in the Euro with investors seemingly betting on worse. Given that, it is difficult to come up with a short term valuation for KITD as the Euro appears to be falling off worse than proper grammar or Britney Spears' top. Last Q, the $/Euro exchange rate was somewhere around $1.38 and this Q, it's likely going to be around $1.25, and after that, who knows? So lets take a worse case scenario where we assume the exchange goes to parity. So that would be a 28% drop in the exchange rate from last Q. Money McBags thinks at the high end KITD can do $150MM of revenue next year, but let's call it $130MM because of the global uncertainty. The thing is, that number was derived off of the old $/EU exchange so if we knock 70% of their revenue (their EU exposed revenue) by 28%, revenue decreases by ~$25MM. So insted of $130MM, a worst case scenario yields revenue of $105MM and at 20% EBITDA margins, that is ~$21MM EBITDA. The company currently has a market cap of $210MM but they have somewhere around $30MM in cash after their last deal so they have an enterprise value of roughly $180MM and thus are currently at a worst case scenario of ~9x EV/EBITDA and topline growth in that scenario would still be ~20% (and dollar euro parity is almost as bad a scenario for the financial markets as having your daughter bring home Jordan Van Der Sloot for Thanksgiving Break). Of course all of this assumes that their costs and revenue are tied together so if the euro drops by 28% the associated costs with that will drop by 28% and thus margins will remain intact. The point is, Money McBags still likes this company longterm as they are in a rapidly growing space that is going to continue to grow for several years, but there are certainly short term currency issues. However, they are diversifying their revenues in to the US and Asia so as to become less dependent on Europe so while things look bad now, in the long run this company should be fine. With uncertainty comes opportunity and it is getting to the point where this company is just getting stupid cheap.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
5/25/10 Midafternoon Report: Volatility causes market to go up and down faster than a time constrained fluff girl
The markets sold off hard again today until the late afternoon with the the sell off being caused by Europe going to zero, financial reform, and now fucking North Korea dropping a turd in the proverbial kimchee bowl, and the hardness being caused by the market having grabbed a workout with Amanda Carrier. So la-di-fucking-da. With Kim Jong Il apparently getting his Napoleon complex on and dropping a South Korean warship like a diahrreatic drops logs (that is with ease and aplomb), the markets have more to worry about than a parent who sends their kids for music lessons at Gary Glitter's house. It is ugly out there today (and not Lady GaGa ugly, but Amy Winehouse on crack sprinkled with a bit of Tina Yothers ugly) and Money McBags' screen was redder than a baboon's ass with a deep and gaping anal fissure for most of the day. So what is an investor to do other than hide under their desks and dream of long walks on the beach with Melissa Giraldo while hoping the bad man leaves them alone? If Money McBags had the answer, he would certainly let all of you know, but for now, he is hedging the volatility and waiting for things to settle before stepping back in to names that have good long term trends and are right now just guilty by association like the cast of a Robin Williams movie (names like KO, MCD, VMW, GOOG). The market could really go either way at this technical level and while Money McBags is a very cunning linguist, he is not clairvoyant and thus does not want to bet on what will win in the current pissing match between bad macroeconomics and reasonable company fundamentals.
In US news, consumer confidence was up today to it's highest levels since May 2008 when it was caught doing lines in a Hollywood bathroom with Lindsay Lohan. Americans are now rosier about job prospects as longterm unemployed people can no longer pay for phone service and thus have dropped off of the radar of people running these surveys. Adding to the optimism is the complete lack of global perspective by US workers who think "european" is just something you say to your friend at the urinal next to you. Also, LIBOR in dollars is spiking like it is Karch Karily after a health dose of PEDs. The dollar Libor-OIS spread which is a gauge of banks’ reluctance to lend widened to the most since July and signals that banks are questioning the viability of their peers like a young Michael Jackson used to question the viability of Marlon. And making matters worse is that the VIX continues to shoot up and investors have to hope that it is using one of Magic Johnson's needles and thus will soon die down. Also, housing prices fell last quarter according the Case-Shiller report and fell sequentially for the month but were up modestly year over year. So taking whatever metric and time frame you choose to use, housing prices were about as robust as Detroit's economy or Sarah Palin's vocabulary.
Internationally, shit is still all fucked up with Europe's economy sinking like Angela Merkel's neckline before a night out with the Bundestag and all investors can do is hope to grab on to some floatation devices to avoid sinking. Spain and their banking system are sparking fears today with regional bank Cajasur having been bailed out yesterday and who knows what to be bailed out tomorrow leaving Spain's banking system under more fire than the Spanish Armada at Gravelines in 1588. There is real fear that insolvency could spread like herpes in the Kardashian family and if that happens, not even extra strength Valtrex will be able to save the Europe's economy. Of course today, North Korea has slapped their tiny penises (or is it peni? Can someone exhume William Safire and ask him?) on the table to take part in the global cock off to see who can fuck shit up the most. After South Korea finally picked out the right stationary and calligrapher, they formally accused North Korea of sinking one of their warships in an incident that happened back in March. South Korea also relisted North Korea as their "principal enemy" knocking forks, Don Rickles, and Yonggary down on their list. In return, North Korea has suspended any interaction with their neighbors to the South, banned South Korean ships from territorial waters and air space, and taken out an ad in the Rodong Sinmun calling South Korea a bunch of "chodes." While this is not good news, Money McBags could give a shit if North and South Korea want to go to war, stop talking with each other, or have a fucking pillow fight. What Money McBags cares about is the markets and as long as this threat of war doesn't stop sweat shops in Seoul from banging out willy warmers, he will blissfully ignore this hissy fit and assume everything will get better.
In stock news, GS is about the only thing up big today as investors fly to the safety of the US government. Other financials continue to trade down as new legislation may require them to raise more reserves. spin off their profitable derivatives desks, and stop being such dicks. In other stocks, DELL announced plans for an iPad rival which they are tentatively calling "failure" and Microsoft announced a management shake-up with the head of their entertainment division "retiring," no doubt to spend more time with his Zune. With MSFT lagging Apple, Google, Nintendo, and the abacus in developing consumer products people actually want to buy, hiring someone with vision is going to be key for MSFT to grow back to a market leader. Finally Autozone is up 5% today after reporting numbers better than estimates due to new store openings and higher demand for auto parts. They expect continued strong demand for replacement parts as fewer people are buying new cars since it's not necessary to drive to one's living room which is where 20MM people now work.
In small cap news, KITD is getting pummeled again today. Money McBags can't defend this stock anymore as he has said everything he can say. He is going to hold on to his shares and just not pay attention to the price in this volatility. Either their A/R are fucked or they're not and if they're not, this stock is easily a double from here. Also, CTGX which Money McBags has blogged about many times and which he puked out the day of the "flash crash" may have bottomed out today as it is up in this tape. The company is trading at ~10x Money McBags' fiscal 2011 EPS which implies 50% growth. Their upside relies on government spending on electronic medical records and even if Europe falls in to the ocean and North Korea taints South Korea's kimchee supply, the US government is still going to be doling out billions of dollars to get EMR up and running. So CTGX's main IBM outsourcing business may come under fire in a bad economy, but EMR should help pull them through. There's a lot of Y2K about this company, but luckily, we're about to start the medical Y2K and they should post impressive earnings. Money McBags is likely going to buy back when shit settles down a bit. Right now low liquidity names scare him more than seemingly hot chicks with adam's apples.
In US news, consumer confidence was up today to it's highest levels since May 2008 when it was caught doing lines in a Hollywood bathroom with Lindsay Lohan. Americans are now rosier about job prospects as longterm unemployed people can no longer pay for phone service and thus have dropped off of the radar of people running these surveys. Adding to the optimism is the complete lack of global perspective by US workers who think "european" is just something you say to your friend at the urinal next to you. Also, LIBOR in dollars is spiking like it is Karch Karily after a health dose of PEDs. The dollar Libor-OIS spread which is a gauge of banks’ reluctance to lend widened to the most since July and signals that banks are questioning the viability of their peers like a young Michael Jackson used to question the viability of Marlon. And making matters worse is that the VIX continues to shoot up and investors have to hope that it is using one of Magic Johnson's needles and thus will soon die down. Also, housing prices fell last quarter according the Case-Shiller report and fell sequentially for the month but were up modestly year over year. So taking whatever metric and time frame you choose to use, housing prices were about as robust as Detroit's economy or Sarah Palin's vocabulary.
Internationally, shit is still all fucked up with Europe's economy sinking like Angela Merkel's neckline before a night out with the Bundestag and all investors can do is hope to grab on to some floatation devices to avoid sinking. Spain and their banking system are sparking fears today with regional bank Cajasur having been bailed out yesterday and who knows what to be bailed out tomorrow leaving Spain's banking system under more fire than the Spanish Armada at Gravelines in 1588. There is real fear that insolvency could spread like herpes in the Kardashian family and if that happens, not even extra strength Valtrex will be able to save the Europe's economy. Of course today, North Korea has slapped their tiny penises (or is it peni? Can someone exhume William Safire and ask him?) on the table to take part in the global cock off to see who can fuck shit up the most. After South Korea finally picked out the right stationary and calligrapher, they formally accused North Korea of sinking one of their warships in an incident that happened back in March. South Korea also relisted North Korea as their "principal enemy" knocking forks, Don Rickles, and Yonggary down on their list. In return, North Korea has suspended any interaction with their neighbors to the South, banned South Korean ships from territorial waters and air space, and taken out an ad in the Rodong Sinmun calling South Korea a bunch of "chodes." While this is not good news, Money McBags could give a shit if North and South Korea want to go to war, stop talking with each other, or have a fucking pillow fight. What Money McBags cares about is the markets and as long as this threat of war doesn't stop sweat shops in Seoul from banging out willy warmers, he will blissfully ignore this hissy fit and assume everything will get better.
In stock news, GS is about the only thing up big today as investors fly to the safety of the US government. Other financials continue to trade down as new legislation may require them to raise more reserves. spin off their profitable derivatives desks, and stop being such dicks. In other stocks, DELL announced plans for an iPad rival which they are tentatively calling "failure" and Microsoft announced a management shake-up with the head of their entertainment division "retiring," no doubt to spend more time with his Zune. With MSFT lagging Apple, Google, Nintendo, and the abacus in developing consumer products people actually want to buy, hiring someone with vision is going to be key for MSFT to grow back to a market leader. Finally Autozone is up 5% today after reporting numbers better than estimates due to new store openings and higher demand for auto parts. They expect continued strong demand for replacement parts as fewer people are buying new cars since it's not necessary to drive to one's living room which is where 20MM people now work.
In small cap news, KITD is getting pummeled again today. Money McBags can't defend this stock anymore as he has said everything he can say. He is going to hold on to his shares and just not pay attention to the price in this volatility. Either their A/R are fucked or they're not and if they're not, this stock is easily a double from here. Also, CTGX which Money McBags has blogged about many times and which he puked out the day of the "flash crash" may have bottomed out today as it is up in this tape. The company is trading at ~10x Money McBags' fiscal 2011 EPS which implies 50% growth. Their upside relies on government spending on electronic medical records and even if Europe falls in to the ocean and North Korea taints South Korea's kimchee supply, the US government is still going to be doling out billions of dollars to get EMR up and running. So CTGX's main IBM outsourcing business may come under fire in a bad economy, but EMR should help pull them through. There's a lot of Y2K about this company, but luckily, we're about to start the medical Y2K and they should post impressive earnings. Money McBags is likely going to buy back when shit settles down a bit. Right now low liquidity names scare him more than seemingly hot chicks with adam's apples.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
5/20/10 Midafternoon Report: S&P slides closer to next technical level of 0, most economists predict a bounce from there.
Fucking Europe. Seriously. First they tried to tax us without letting us represent ourselves and you know what, we don't play that way. Then they got all upitty and burned down the White House while poor little James Madison sat on his gelding and got his S'mores on. And after that we've had to bail them out of losing a fucking war to the worst human ever (and Money McBags does not mean Bill Laimbeer), got stuck with Pride and Prejudice being taught to every high school class in America, and were subjected to the fucking Spice Girls. Really? Jeesh. As if Europe has not treated us poorly enough by using us like a young lady in Lawrence Taylor's hotel room, now they have decided to have their whole fucking economy go to $0 because the loose union of countries can't keep the weakest links from exhibiting worse moral hazard than Magic Johnson's wife after finding extra strength condoms. Sure, we fucked up the whole financial system first, but for fucksake Europe, at least we know whom to blame. So clean your shit up because Money McBags doesn't want to have another revolution and have to throw your tea away because his tea bagging is reserved for Faye Reagan only. As an aside, Money McBags is aware that every example he used above refers to Britain and their tea and fucking krumpets eating, bad teeth having, and fag smoking nation, and that Britain does not use the Euro and therefore is not the problem. That said, his commentary stands after all, we all know it wasn't over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor.
In US macro news, ain't a lot of good shit going on today. New claims for unemployment spiked to 471k, up 25k from last week and the first rise in five weeks which surprised everyone but the 20MM people looking for jobs. Riddle me this, with unemployment so high, how the fuck are all of these economists still getting paid for adding absolutely no value? It is a more fraudulent occupation than the Chief Compliance Officer at Goldman Sachs or Lady GaGa's stylist. Not only were new claims for unemployment up, but the index of leading indicators was down .1% which was worse than economist guesses for a .2% gain as apparently they confused the word "leading" with "made-up." Finally, the Philadelphia Fed said manufacturing rose to 21.4 but was short of the 22 predicted by consensus estimates. In that same report, the jobs number fell and more unemployment is only going to do wonders for the lovely metropolitan Philadelphia area where the motto is "if it's not nailed down, it's ours."
Politically, the SEC continues to investigate what is now being called the "flash crash" because "high frequency trade off," "stock schlock," and "holy fuck what just happened" apparently weren't catchy enough. When they're done investigating the crash and can completely rule out trannie porn as the cause, Money McBags hopes they investigate why the market is going to $0. Also, Senate Democrats apparently voted down a proposal for financial reform because Senators Feingold and Cantwell didn't think the proposed regulation went far enough and Money McBags applauds the state of Washington's lovely Ms. Cantwell who couldn't well pass the current legislation without stricter rules on derivatives. The junior Senator said "Even something like Hoover Dam with all of the great concrete and all of the great engineering and all the great things that make that structure work, still has a problem if somebody drills a hole in the bottom of it." Well said and to be brutally honest, Money McBags trusts any 51 year old single, never been married, woman when she talks about needing to proverbially put fingers in dykes.
Internationally, well, internationally things are more fucked than Dexter Manley in a spelling bee or Keynesian economics. Germany's ban on naked short selling continues to spook the market as German traders all run to their nearest Breuninger's to load up on slacks. Making matters worse is that Greek workers are on a 24 hour strike, or what used to be known as "Tuesday." Money McBags isn't saying that Greek workers are lazy, but does it really take more than 300 years to clean up some rubble from the fucking Parthenon? I mean we now have things called cranes and bulldozers. Luckily, French economy minister Christine Lagarde said: “I absolutely do not think that the euro is in danger” before adding "it will provide great kindling for Europeans when they can no longer afford heat."
As for stock news, well, everything was down, especially financials though the always optimistic, rarely right, and yet deliciously named Dick Bove (rhymes with "oy vey") said banks stocks "may fall another 10% to 12% reflecting market fears but they are still very attractive investments." He then opined, "Longer term, I still expect that these stocks will grow in multiples, not percentages, as long as we feed them after midnight, expose them to bright lights, and dunk them in water." SPLS actually put up a good Q today, unfortunately the market cares less about performance than a John Meriwether investor. Staples CEO said he is a little more optimistic than he has been and raised the low end of guidance for Q2. Williams-Sonoma also posted better than expected profits, raised guidance, and said they are getting more positive about their customers coming back as apparently there is still a demographic that likes to buy overpriced shit that they don't need. Also, Game Stop also put up a good quarter thanks to popular games like "Battlefield Bad Company 2," "God of War III," and "Erin Andrews Peephole Finder." It's no surprise that a video game retailer would put up a good quarter because stoners are still selling the shit out of weed, something about inelastic demand. Finally, Sears put up a shit awful Q simply because they are Sears.
In small cap news, everything is going haywire again except KITD has somehow moved up on another high volume day. Money McBags has talked about KITD all week but their sell of was overdone if you believe management. The spike in A/R has investors worried, especially as those receivables are tied to european revenues but management had a mostly logical response to the spike which Money McBags broke down the other day. One of Money McBags' favorite small shorts (along with Bridget the Midget), WGO, has been getting hammered lately and he'd like to think it is because investors are finally realizing this company is not going to break even for at least another year and not just because everything is down. WGO simply does not earn money and now that inventories have been un-destocked, they can't play the positive cash flow game anymore. Even if WGO were to somehow earn money, for the stock to trade at its current price of ~$12.50, WGO would have to earn $1.25 next year because Money McBags would never pay more than 10x for a company selling an expensive discretionary good with little operational flexibility in the biggest recession since Herbert Hoover stuck to the gold standard. So if you want to play the downside, shorting WGO is a decent option. That said, when the market settles down, Money McBags will be looking to add with companies like CTGX, ARTG, TMRK, RICK, and QCOR on his to buy list. But hey, be careful out there.
In US macro news, ain't a lot of good shit going on today. New claims for unemployment spiked to 471k, up 25k from last week and the first rise in five weeks which surprised everyone but the 20MM people looking for jobs. Riddle me this, with unemployment so high, how the fuck are all of these economists still getting paid for adding absolutely no value? It is a more fraudulent occupation than the Chief Compliance Officer at Goldman Sachs or Lady GaGa's stylist. Not only were new claims for unemployment up, but the index of leading indicators was down .1% which was worse than economist guesses for a .2% gain as apparently they confused the word "leading" with "made-up." Finally, the Philadelphia Fed said manufacturing rose to 21.4 but was short of the 22 predicted by consensus estimates. In that same report, the jobs number fell and more unemployment is only going to do wonders for the lovely metropolitan Philadelphia area where the motto is "if it's not nailed down, it's ours."
Politically, the SEC continues to investigate what is now being called the "flash crash" because "high frequency trade off," "stock schlock," and "holy fuck what just happened" apparently weren't catchy enough. When they're done investigating the crash and can completely rule out trannie porn as the cause, Money McBags hopes they investigate why the market is going to $0. Also, Senate Democrats apparently voted down a proposal for financial reform because Senators Feingold and Cantwell didn't think the proposed regulation went far enough and Money McBags applauds the state of Washington's lovely Ms. Cantwell who couldn't well pass the current legislation without stricter rules on derivatives. The junior Senator said "Even something like Hoover Dam with all of the great concrete and all of the great engineering and all the great things that make that structure work, still has a problem if somebody drills a hole in the bottom of it." Well said and to be brutally honest, Money McBags trusts any 51 year old single, never been married, woman when she talks about needing to proverbially put fingers in dykes.
Internationally, well, internationally things are more fucked than Dexter Manley in a spelling bee or Keynesian economics. Germany's ban on naked short selling continues to spook the market as German traders all run to their nearest Breuninger's to load up on slacks. Making matters worse is that Greek workers are on a 24 hour strike, or what used to be known as "Tuesday." Money McBags isn't saying that Greek workers are lazy, but does it really take more than 300 years to clean up some rubble from the fucking Parthenon? I mean we now have things called cranes and bulldozers. Luckily, French economy minister Christine Lagarde said: “I absolutely do not think that the euro is in danger” before adding "it will provide great kindling for Europeans when they can no longer afford heat."
As for stock news, well, everything was down, especially financials though the always optimistic, rarely right, and yet deliciously named Dick Bove (rhymes with "oy vey") said banks stocks "may fall another 10% to 12% reflecting market fears but they are still very attractive investments." He then opined, "Longer term, I still expect that these stocks will grow in multiples, not percentages, as long as we feed them after midnight, expose them to bright lights, and dunk them in water." SPLS actually put up a good Q today, unfortunately the market cares less about performance than a John Meriwether investor. Staples CEO said he is a little more optimistic than he has been and raised the low end of guidance for Q2. Williams-Sonoma also posted better than expected profits, raised guidance, and said they are getting more positive about their customers coming back as apparently there is still a demographic that likes to buy overpriced shit that they don't need. Also, Game Stop also put up a good quarter thanks to popular games like "Battlefield Bad Company 2," "God of War III," and "Erin Andrews Peephole Finder." It's no surprise that a video game retailer would put up a good quarter because stoners are still selling the shit out of weed, something about inelastic demand. Finally, Sears put up a shit awful Q simply because they are Sears.
In small cap news, everything is going haywire again except KITD has somehow moved up on another high volume day. Money McBags has talked about KITD all week but their sell of was overdone if you believe management. The spike in A/R has investors worried, especially as those receivables are tied to european revenues but management had a mostly logical response to the spike which Money McBags broke down the other day. One of Money McBags' favorite small shorts (along with Bridget the Midget), WGO, has been getting hammered lately and he'd like to think it is because investors are finally realizing this company is not going to break even for at least another year and not just because everything is down. WGO simply does not earn money and now that inventories have been un-destocked, they can't play the positive cash flow game anymore. Even if WGO were to somehow earn money, for the stock to trade at its current price of ~$12.50, WGO would have to earn $1.25 next year because Money McBags would never pay more than 10x for a company selling an expensive discretionary good with little operational flexibility in the biggest recession since Herbert Hoover stuck to the gold standard. So if you want to play the downside, shorting WGO is a decent option. That said, when the market settles down, Money McBags will be looking to add with companies like CTGX, ARTG, TMRK, RICK, and QCOR on his to buy list. But hey, be careful out there.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
5/19/10 Midafternoon Report: VIX shoots up, claims it doesn't have a problem, just wants to try to take its mind off global recession
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Tuesday, May 18, 2010
5/18/10 Midafternoon Report: If you want to short in Germany, you now have to wear pants
The markets fell again today as US macro news was mediocre at best, fears in China have risen from red alert to Kung Pao levels, and Germany has banned naked short selling of stocks and CDS (though you are still encouraged to get long Salzgitter and Money McBags' "salzgitter" would get very long for Sonya Kraus and he would certainly let her take the other side of his Siemens trade). With the ban on naked short selling in Germany, the markets floundered as traders sought to unwind positions and find alternative ways, or countries, to continue with the same bets they have been making. This market reeks of dislocation worse than Ronnie Brown's lisfranc.
Not helping matters was that US macro data was more mixed than a can of nuts (and please, write your own punchline). Home building rose in April with new home starts up 5.8%, the most since October 2008 as home builders prove to be more optimistic than Brooklyn Decker's bikini waxer. However, construction plans fell to their lowest level this year as the tax credit ran out and people remain unfucking employed. Building permits were down 11.5% and economists had guessed that they would be moderately up which once again proves that a broken clock is wrong 86,498 times a day. In other macro news, seasonally adjusted PPI was down .1% last month due to more people keeping their eyelids shut as a result of allergies (and yes Money McBags has used the PPI pun before, but it is still horribly funny). Core PPI, which excludes the essentials such as food, energy, and oxygen, was up .2%. Money McBags always loves that economists apparently don't care about food and energy prices as a gauge of inflation which is as rational as a pareto inefficient nash equilibrium like the prisoner's dilemma (and if Money McBags were ever a prisoner, he would have no dilemma because he simply wouldn't pick up the soap). Interestingly, energy prices actually slumped by .8% thanks to natural gas prices retreating from booming to silent but deadly and food prices declined by .2% despite meat rising 5.1% and thus beating meat price rises going back seven years. The good news though is that inflation appears to be tamer than a Dane Cook stand up routine.
Internationally, in addition to Germany banning naked shorting (and Money McBags hopes they don't ban naked cavorting), the EU sent 14.5B euro to Greece today and told them to keep the tip. With that 14.5B, the EU hopes to stave off Greek defaults, restore order to the European financial system, and receive a free two-liter of coke with their souvlaki since their order exceeded $20. Also, the ZEW Center for European Economic Research (ZEW of course standing for zero economic worth) said its indicator of German economic sentiment fell in May to 46 from 53. The good news is that the indicator’s historical average is 27, the bad news is that the 46 was below the consensus guess of 47, and the even worse news is that Lucy Pinder has never been in my kitchen. But it's not just Europe that is going in to the crapper like last night's bean burrito washed down with an extra large cup of metamucil and healthy dollop of "we're fucked," but also China as Chinese investors are also starting to get more nervous than Jackie Chan trying to roll his "r"s. The stock market in China remains lackluster, down 21% for the year despite being sprinkled with MSG to keep investors coming back for more. Driving the sell off has been expectations of rising interest rates, fear of tighter bank lending to help rein in inflation and quiet soaring property prices, and fortune cookies throughout the region reading "You're going down" (in bed. Booooyah!!). The markets remain more jittery than Sarah Palin in a spelling bee, so remain careful.
In stock news, Walmart put up a good quarter beating analyst guesses of $.85 eps by $.03. The world's largest seller of cheap crap had sales of $99B which were up 6% despite a 1.4% drop in same store sales. Guidance was generally inline though management said sales are shifting away from entertainment and apparel and into do-it yourself auto repairs, pharmacy, and tight fitting tops. Home Depot announced a good quarter and raised their outlook, yet the stock traded down as analysts think the outlook to be too rosy after Lowe's took a giant dump on Q2 forecasts yesterday. Finally, financials fell again as potential new credit card regulations hit card issuers and fear of Europe imploding hit banks. In all, it is uglier out there than Minnie Driver's face and tomorrow could get much much worse as fear has seeped back in to the market.
In small cap stocks, everything sucked. KITD got hit with another big block trade around midday despite both Merriman Curhan Ford and Roth Capital's analysts raising price targets after yesterday's Q. Money McBags promised he would listen to or watch their quarterly call today but he has been too busy to follow through on that, so his analysis from yesterday still stands. The fact is it is a weird little company, exposed to many different currencies, and highly acquisitve in a market that may soon like none of those three things. So the market may trade this down on technicals and fears, but fundamentally, if you don't mind some pain for awhile, it is worth holding on to like a drowning straight man would hold on to Christina Hendricks' life preservers.
Not helping matters was that US macro data was more mixed than a can of nuts (and please, write your own punchline). Home building rose in April with new home starts up 5.8%, the most since October 2008 as home builders prove to be more optimistic than Brooklyn Decker's bikini waxer. However, construction plans fell to their lowest level this year as the tax credit ran out and people remain unfucking employed. Building permits were down 11.5% and economists had guessed that they would be moderately up which once again proves that a broken clock is wrong 86,498 times a day. In other macro news, seasonally adjusted PPI was down .1% last month due to more people keeping their eyelids shut as a result of allergies (and yes Money McBags has used the PPI pun before, but it is still horribly funny). Core PPI, which excludes the essentials such as food, energy, and oxygen, was up .2%. Money McBags always loves that economists apparently don't care about food and energy prices as a gauge of inflation which is as rational as a pareto inefficient nash equilibrium like the prisoner's dilemma (and if Money McBags were ever a prisoner, he would have no dilemma because he simply wouldn't pick up the soap). Interestingly, energy prices actually slumped by .8% thanks to natural gas prices retreating from booming to silent but deadly and food prices declined by .2% despite meat rising 5.1% and thus beating meat price rises going back seven years. The good news though is that inflation appears to be tamer than a Dane Cook stand up routine.
Internationally, in addition to Germany banning naked shorting (and Money McBags hopes they don't ban naked cavorting), the EU sent 14.5B euro to Greece today and told them to keep the tip. With that 14.5B, the EU hopes to stave off Greek defaults, restore order to the European financial system, and receive a free two-liter of coke with their souvlaki since their order exceeded $20. Also, the ZEW Center for European Economic Research (ZEW of course standing for zero economic worth) said its indicator of German economic sentiment fell in May to 46 from 53. The good news is that the indicator’s historical average is 27, the bad news is that the 46 was below the consensus guess of 47, and the even worse news is that Lucy Pinder has never been in my kitchen. But it's not just Europe that is going in to the crapper like last night's bean burrito washed down with an extra large cup of metamucil and healthy dollop of "we're fucked," but also China as Chinese investors are also starting to get more nervous than Jackie Chan trying to roll his "r"s. The stock market in China remains lackluster, down 21% for the year despite being sprinkled with MSG to keep investors coming back for more. Driving the sell off has been expectations of rising interest rates, fear of tighter bank lending to help rein in inflation and quiet soaring property prices, and fortune cookies throughout the region reading "You're going down" (in bed. Booooyah!!). The markets remain more jittery than Sarah Palin in a spelling bee, so remain careful.
In stock news, Walmart put up a good quarter beating analyst guesses of $.85 eps by $.03. The world's largest seller of cheap crap had sales of $99B which were up 6% despite a 1.4% drop in same store sales. Guidance was generally inline though management said sales are shifting away from entertainment and apparel and into do-it yourself auto repairs, pharmacy, and tight fitting tops. Home Depot announced a good quarter and raised their outlook, yet the stock traded down as analysts think the outlook to be too rosy after Lowe's took a giant dump on Q2 forecasts yesterday. Finally, financials fell again as potential new credit card regulations hit card issuers and fear of Europe imploding hit banks. In all, it is uglier out there than Minnie Driver's face and tomorrow could get much much worse as fear has seeped back in to the market.
In small cap stocks, everything sucked. KITD got hit with another big block trade around midday despite both Merriman Curhan Ford and Roth Capital's analysts raising price targets after yesterday's Q. Money McBags promised he would listen to or watch their quarterly call today but he has been too busy to follow through on that, so his analysis from yesterday still stands. The fact is it is a weird little company, exposed to many different currencies, and highly acquisitve in a market that may soon like none of those three things. So the market may trade this down on technicals and fears, but fundamentally, if you don't mind some pain for awhile, it is worth holding on to like a drowning straight man would hold on to Christina Hendricks' life preservers.
Monday, May 17, 2010
5/17/10 Midafternoon Report: The Euro is falling! The Euro is falling!
The market was somehow flat today after spending most of the day down again as the perilousness of Europe's debt situation continues to worry investors like laryngitis worries Pavarotti or like coming in to contact with Paris Hilton worries osmophobes. Not only is Europe raining ash on the market's parade (both literally and figuratively, though to be fair, the market's parade today was in honor of Norwegian Constitution Day (better known as pedophilia Christmas for the tradtion of children's parades), which ranks somewhere between the invention of nose hair clippers and the launch of the Edsel in the pantheon of modern events, so not a big deal) but US macro news was mildly disappointing as well. The NY Fed released their monthly manufacturing report and the gauge of general business conditions fell to empty. The business index dropped from 31 to 19 and analysts had guessed it would be 30. As always, Money McBags has no idea what the difference between 31 and 19 is (other than maybe a few kids and a meth problem), but he knows that they're both legal. The new order index also tried to make this a Blue Monday by falling from 29 to 14 as inventories have been restocked (or un-destocked, whatever). One positive aspect of the report though was that employment strengthened as payrolls grew the fastest they have in six years as NY manufacturing plants try to keep up with demand for tools and building materials to help batten down foreclosed on houses. In other US macro news, home builders' sentiment hit a 2.5 year high as apparently delusion has finally creeped in to lift their spirits. The index rose to a whopping 22 while analysts guessed it would be 20, so the difference is a rounding error or a stutter. The bigger issue is that 50 or greater means more people are optimistic, so with the index only at 22, people are just slightly less negative, like a guy who breaks up with Amy Winehouse to date Mayim Bialik.
Internationally, the Euro continues to sink today as if it were a Brazilian Real in 1999 or had just hired Ted McGinley to star in its new TV drama (tentatively to be called The Big Crash Theory). The ECB was out buying 16.5B of sovereign debt and in order to try to show they aren't just printing Euros, they will be taking in 16.5B of deposits from banks and paying out interest. Wow. So the banks get some free money while the ECB gets worthless bonds and has to pay interest on the money they didn't "print." Seems a bit odd but then again, so does Rene Zellweger's face and that's never seemed to hinder her. Also, bank lending in Europe is taking a significant hit as the rates banks charge each other for loans in dollars rose to a nine month high. The Libor-OIS spread (which isn't nearly as interesting as the rumored Rachel Uchitel Playboy spread) increased to 24 basis points, the most since August, thus signaling that banks in Europe are as interested in lending as the FED is interested in transparency or as Ellen Degeneres is interested in penis.
In stock news, GM posted their first profit as apparently people can now only afford shitty cars. GM earned $865MM and proved that all you need to do to succeed in business is suck badly at your job, lose a ton of money, and then get bailed out by good old Uncle Sam and his magic printing press. Money McBags only laments that he missed that class during his business school days. Not only did GM post a profit, but they are on course to go public again in Q4 to try to see if the investors have learned the old adage "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, go fuck yourself." Additonally, GM is said to be looking to get back in to the financing business which is a bit like letting Bernie Madoff handle the prison finances, filling the Goodyear blimp with hydrogen, or hiring Roman Polanski to babysit your 14 year old daughter. In other earnings news, LOW beat earnings forecasts but like all companies in the past week, gave guidance more disappointing than Nicole Eggert's movie career (and Money McBags had so much hope). CEO Robert Niblock said that 2010 will be a "year of transition" while significant growth won't happen until 2011, and if it doesn't, no one will remember he said it would. Guidance for Q2 was $.57 to $.59 per share which was below analyst estimates of $.62 per share and sent the stock down for the day.
In small cap news, KITD had their quarterly earnings release today and you all know Money McBags loves KITD like Joanie loves Chachi or high frequency traders love turning off liquidity when the market is tumbling. The stock is trading down heavily thanks to some block trades around midday where someone just wanted to puke this out like a bulimic with emetophilia at an all you can eat Sizzler buffet. Money McBags hasn't had a chance to listen to or watch their call, though he will tonight or tommorow, but he did go through their Q and hear the last 20 minutes of Q&A. To be honest, their Q was a bit lighter on the revenue side than Money McBags would have liked to see. Revenue of $17.4MM was up 80% y/y but up only 8% sequentially, though management explained that this is typically a sequentially down revenue Q due to reduced digital media consumption in the industry. That said, EBITDA margins were only 17% after being 19% last Q and accounts receivables continue to be higher than John Belushi at a Chateau Marmont casino night. Management explained that as they are a small company with Fortune 500 clients, they have about as much leverage in bill collecting as He Ping Ping does on a see saw with Shaquille O'Neal (and that's not just because Mr. Ping Ping was so small, but also because he is dead). As they explained, they have been getting business in towards the end of the Q which causes A/R to spike right before the Q but their larger clients get around to paying them within 45 to 60 days typically since KITD's services are usually a small expense for them. An interesting point made by CEO Tuzman was that they could factor their receivables but they choose not to because they are not worried about collecting and thus don't want to give up the economics. Their customers are going to pay as they are big, established companies, but they just take a bit longer. Three other interesting points:
1. In the press release they say: "In answer to a couple of investors' questions, we have not seen any slow-down in IP video-related expenditures in Europe as a result of theGreek fiscal crisis." This is good news as most of their revenue comes from Europe, so Money McBags is happy to see this and hopes it holds.
2. They purchased a company called Benchmark which gives them a presence in Singapore, mainland China, and Southeast Asia. Benchmark is supposed to have $10MM in revenue in the next 12 months and they paid ~$11MM for it if Money McBags did the math correctly. The deal should be immediately accretive and will open up opportunities in Asia for them where there are two main competitors who they hinted that they may already be in negotiations with to do JVs or acquisitions. Money McBags is glad they are finding shit to buy with all of the dilutive equity they just raised.
3. Kelly Brook is hot.
Anyway, guidance for this year which was released a few quarters ago was $75MM+ revenue but since then they have added Multicast which should be ~$12MM revenue and 9 months of Benchmark which should be ~$7.5MM revenue, so they are now on pace for ~$94MM in revenue. However, they only earned $17.5MM this Q so in the next 3 Qs they are going to have to average ~$25MM revenue which seems a bit like a stretch. In terms of earnings, gross profit was up to 61%, a number they said will likely continue to climb a bit depending on mix and after stripping out merger, restructuring, non-cash stock comp, and integration expense, Money McBags has KITD with ~$1.5MM of operating income this Q and with the 23MM shares they now have, that would have been ~.07 EPS. So not great, but on the right track. To give you an idea about the leverage though, if they had earned $25MM in revenue, they would have had another ~$4.5MM of gross profit and even if op ex rose $1MM, that would have earned another $.15 putting them at $.22 eps or ~$.88 eps run rate and they are trading at ~15x that with today's sell off. As highlighted earlier, guidance and acquisitions now get us to $25MM revenue quarters so over the next year that type of operating EPS is possible, and with 50% growth, KITD remains very cheap.
Internationally, the Euro continues to sink today as if it were a Brazilian Real in 1999 or had just hired Ted McGinley to star in its new TV drama (tentatively to be called The Big Crash Theory). The ECB was out buying 16.5B of sovereign debt and in order to try to show they aren't just printing Euros, they will be taking in 16.5B of deposits from banks and paying out interest. Wow. So the banks get some free money while the ECB gets worthless bonds and has to pay interest on the money they didn't "print." Seems a bit odd but then again, so does Rene Zellweger's face and that's never seemed to hinder her. Also, bank lending in Europe is taking a significant hit as the rates banks charge each other for loans in dollars rose to a nine month high. The Libor-OIS spread (which isn't nearly as interesting as the rumored Rachel Uchitel Playboy spread) increased to 24 basis points, the most since August, thus signaling that banks in Europe are as interested in lending as the FED is interested in transparency or as Ellen Degeneres is interested in penis.
In stock news, GM posted their first profit as apparently people can now only afford shitty cars. GM earned $865MM and proved that all you need to do to succeed in business is suck badly at your job, lose a ton of money, and then get bailed out by good old Uncle Sam and his magic printing press. Money McBags only laments that he missed that class during his business school days. Not only did GM post a profit, but they are on course to go public again in Q4 to try to see if the investors have learned the old adage "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, go fuck yourself." Additonally, GM is said to be looking to get back in to the financing business which is a bit like letting Bernie Madoff handle the prison finances, filling the Goodyear blimp with hydrogen, or hiring Roman Polanski to babysit your 14 year old daughter. In other earnings news, LOW beat earnings forecasts but like all companies in the past week, gave guidance more disappointing than Nicole Eggert's movie career (and Money McBags had so much hope). CEO Robert Niblock said that 2010 will be a "year of transition" while significant growth won't happen until 2011, and if it doesn't, no one will remember he said it would. Guidance for Q2 was $.57 to $.59 per share which was below analyst estimates of $.62 per share and sent the stock down for the day.
In small cap news, KITD had their quarterly earnings release today and you all know Money McBags loves KITD like Joanie loves Chachi or high frequency traders love turning off liquidity when the market is tumbling. The stock is trading down heavily thanks to some block trades around midday where someone just wanted to puke this out like a bulimic with emetophilia at an all you can eat Sizzler buffet. Money McBags hasn't had a chance to listen to or watch their call, though he will tonight or tommorow, but he did go through their Q and hear the last 20 minutes of Q&A. To be honest, their Q was a bit lighter on the revenue side than Money McBags would have liked to see. Revenue of $17.4MM was up 80% y/y but up only 8% sequentially, though management explained that this is typically a sequentially down revenue Q due to reduced digital media consumption in the industry. That said, EBITDA margins were only 17% after being 19% last Q and accounts receivables continue to be higher than John Belushi at a Chateau Marmont casino night. Management explained that as they are a small company with Fortune 500 clients, they have about as much leverage in bill collecting as He Ping Ping does on a see saw with Shaquille O'Neal (and that's not just because Mr. Ping Ping was so small, but also because he is dead). As they explained, they have been getting business in towards the end of the Q which causes A/R to spike right before the Q but their larger clients get around to paying them within 45 to 60 days typically since KITD's services are usually a small expense for them. An interesting point made by CEO Tuzman was that they could factor their receivables but they choose not to because they are not worried about collecting and thus don't want to give up the economics. Their customers are going to pay as they are big, established companies, but they just take a bit longer. Three other interesting points:
1. In the press release they say: "In answer to a couple of investors' questions, we have not seen any slow-down in IP video-related expenditures in Europe as a result of the
2. They purchased a company called Benchmark which gives them a presence in Singapore, mainland China, and Southeast Asia. Benchmark is supposed to have $10MM in revenue in the next 12 months and they paid ~$11MM for it if Money McBags did the math correctly. The deal should be immediately accretive and will open up opportunities in Asia for them where there are two main competitors who they hinted that they may already be in negotiations with to do JVs or acquisitions. Money McBags is glad they are finding shit to buy with all of the dilutive equity they just raised.
3. Kelly Brook is hot.
Anyway, guidance for this year which was released a few quarters ago was $75MM+ revenue but since then they have added Multicast which should be ~$12MM revenue and 9 months of Benchmark which should be ~$7.5MM revenue, so they are now on pace for ~$94MM in revenue. However, they only earned $17.5MM this Q so in the next 3 Qs they are going to have to average ~$25MM revenue which seems a bit like a stretch. In terms of earnings, gross profit was up to 61%, a number they said will likely continue to climb a bit depending on mix and after stripping out merger, restructuring, non-cash stock comp, and integration expense, Money McBags has KITD with ~$1.5MM of operating income this Q and with the 23MM shares they now have, that would have been ~.07 EPS. So not great, but on the right track. To give you an idea about the leverage though, if they had earned $25MM in revenue, they would have had another ~$4.5MM of gross profit and even if op ex rose $1MM, that would have earned another $.15 putting them at $.22 eps or ~$.88 eps run rate and they are trading at ~15x that with today's sell off. As highlighted earlier, guidance and acquisitions now get us to $25MM revenue quarters so over the next year that type of operating EPS is possible, and with 50% growth, KITD remains very cheap.
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