12/11/09 Mid-Morning Report: In the year of the ox, China is showing it's hung like one too

There are three big pieces of news out this morning:  US retail sales beat expectations, China is producing the fuck out of some shit, and Nell McAndrew is hot (this may not be news to some, but Money McBags is just brushing up on his British history and he would have fought the fuck out of some Battle of Hatings for Ms. McAndrew).  As far as US retail sales go, they were up 1.3% and up for the second consecutive month.  Most interesting is that core retail sales (excluding gas, autos, building materials, and blumpkins) were up .6% with purchases of electronics and appliances up 2.8%.  Wow, color Money McBags impressed (as long as it is a nice soft blue color to match Money McBags' eyes).  Perhaps the consumer isn't as dead as feared and this is certainly a positive surprise.  People love them some electronics so as long as their credit cards haven't charged off, perhaps they can continue to support the economy.

New data is also out on China showing industrial output rose 19% and imports rose 26%.  Those numbers are so Bubblicous that Cadbury is thinking of suing for patent infringement.  Two important facts though before we get too excited like Rodman Renshaw pumping Chinese IPOs.  1.  China output still remains below where it was pre-crash.  2.  There was such a large stimulus by the Chinese government that Timothy Geithner is said to be quietly suffering from stimulus envy.  So let's temper our excitement just a bit and perhaps let the  Dom chill a bit more instead of cracking it open right now.

The market has had more of a tepid reaction to this news than Money McBags would have expected, but then again he also expected Wes Anderson to make a good movie after Rushmore and look how that worked out.  Perhaps the market is still in awe from opening night of Avatar which has critics in a tizzy and continues to pump up IMAX stock like a tulip in the Netherlands in 1636.  You would be getting in a little late in the game, but IMAX's JV strategy, new movement into Europe, and improved film distribution techniques thus allowing them to show a more diverse schedule and be more nimble, have been driving this stock up with Avatar's potential serving as the cherry on top of their ice cream sundae or the extra hands in their threesome, if you will.  The market seems to be selling the news a bit today, so keep your head up and be smart.

11/30/09 Midday Report: Business and Retail Activity Disagree Like My Stomach and Ten Day Old Bean Burritos That Have Been Sitting in the Hot Mexican Sun

Business activity is back as the Chicago ISM reported today its barometer rose to 56.1, the highest level since August 2008, from 54.2 the prior month .   And we all know how much of a difference 56.1 is compared to 54.2, right?  Oh yeah, we don’t, we just take the mindless commentary from Bloomberg/CNBC/www.Welivetogether.com (NSFW, so heads up) and assume it is up, so that is good.  Well according to Bloomberg, above 50 signals an expansion so we went from being in an expansion last month to still being in an expansion this month.  Whoop-de-dam-doo.  What they don’t say is that the magnitude of the expansion is similar to Herve Villechaize getting a boner.

But wait.  Consumers spent $30 less this year (around 8%)  shopping during the Thanksgiving weekend than last year.  Apparently people are only buying shit on discount, like well, like everything.  The consumer is still weaker than a virgin bloody mary and you know what we call a virgin bloody mary?  Shit.

Anyway, today has brought us more mixed news, but it is pretty simple to cut through all of the crap.  Business activity is picking up marginally because businesses cut inventory faster than Tiger Woods cut out of his house once his wife got hold of the 7 iron, so they have to do some rebuilding as the government stimulates the fuck out of the economy (much like a Haley Atwell and Faye Reagan threesome stimulates the fuck out of teenage boys everywhere).  However, jobs are still sparse and people are unemployed so they can only afford to buy stuff on sale or just not at all.  Therefore, inventories may continue to peak up a bit just to replenish what was shitcanned, but it is unlikely they really take off unless people get back to work.