4/22/10 Midday Report: Market struggles to find green on Earth Day thanks in part to the new planet threatening phenomenon of Goldman Warning

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3/25/10 Midafternoon Report: Bailouts, stimulus, and earnings. Oh My!

The rally is on again as Germany says they will back Greece, earnings are crushing estimates, and Bernanke is going to continue to stimulate the economy like he's the delightful young actress Jessica Pare (moderately safe for work) and the economy is Money McBags.  Bernanke spoke to the House Financial Services Committee today and he tried his best to use small words so the elected officials could understand him.  Bernanke reiterated that "The economy continues to require the support of accommodative monetary policies" and cited the high unemployment numbers, the weak housing market, and the decline of Paul Reubens' career.  He did say that the Fed has a plan to tighten monetary policy and he will do so at the appropriate time even if it causes Alan Greenspan to roll over in his grave.  More importantly, new claims for unemployment fell by 14k to 442k which was 8k below economists' forecasts (forecasts called for it to be overcast with a chance for showers and instead it was sunny and thus caused the showers to be golden to the delight of urolagniacs everywhere).  11.1MM people are still claming unemployment which is only slightly fewer than the number of people in Ohio or the number of pornstars claiming to have seen Tiger's wood, so it is still a big fucking number.  Economists think that if the new claims for unmeployment can drop to 425k, that could signal job growth, of course most of these same economists also thought that home prices could go up forever, that steady state unemployment could be achieved, and that Adam Smith actually had an invisible hand, so be careful to whom you listen (and as an aside, if Money McBags had an invisible hand it would be firmly attached to Bar Refaeli at all times).

In international news, Germany's Chancelor Angela Merkel told the EU and Greece that Germany would support aid to Greece if the IMF were to be involved and if the Greeks finally cleaned up the Parthenon (I mean seriously, it's been around for 2,500 years.  Can someone in Greece do like 1 days work and just dust around the edges a bit?).  France is backing the German plan which marks the first time these two countries have worked together since their ill-fated Broadway run in the musical Les Miserables Time We Had On Das Boot: A Love Story.  Not only did Greece get positive news, but Dubai is putting up to $9.5B in to Dubai World and it's failing real estate business to make sure that the illusion of grandeur can continue.  Dubai World creditors will be paid back in 5 to 8 years or just in time for the next bubble.

The big news of the day has been in the US stock markets where earnings have continued to impress like Beethoven on "Take your kid to work day" or Salma Hayek at a treasure chest convention.  Best Buy easily beat their numbers posting a profit of $1.82 per share vs. analyst guesses of $1.79.  They also gave full year guidance of $3.45 to $3.60 per share which is well above the $3.36 consensus analyst guess.  Same store sales rose by 7% after the company cut prices on flat panel TVs and started offering free taint massages for any purchases over $2,500.  Best Buy also announced further international expansion, continued stock buybacks, and Olivia Munn to be in charge of the Geek Squad's free "modem adujstment" promotion.  In other stock news Qualcomm is off to the races after they raised their expectations for the second time.  They now think Q2 earnings will be between $.56 and $.58 per share which is higher than analyst guesses of $.53 and higher than previous guidance of $.49 to $.53.  They cited better licensing revenues and the addition of crack cocaine directly into their Snapdragon chipset.  Both QCOM and BBY are up 7%+ on the day as investors run to chase good news like Alabamans chase leprechauns.

In small cap news, Money McBags ditched his RICK shares and it really hurt him to do so.  The easy money had been made, though in positive news for those still holding RICK, Money McBags will be putting a portion of his >50% profits back in to Rick's business through the purchase of many Jack and Cokes without the Coke while watching the fine classically trained dancers.  In other small cap news, you might be able to make a momentum trade on CRTX.  Money McBags wrote about CRTX after their Q in the first week of March and they seem to have picked up some steam since then.  They are up 7% today on no news and slightly higher than average volume, but they have been steadily rising for the past couple of weeks.  The company still has a ton of risk as their top selling drugs are in decline, they gave away controlling interest of the company to Italian pharma company Chiesi last year in order to help their balance sheet and acquire new drugs, and their operating record is thinner than Keira Knightley.  If you believe their projections though, they are trading at only ~1.5x sales and that is way too low for a real company to be valued (of course this may not be a real company like, Nohjay Nimpson may not be a real name, oh wait, scratch that).  So if you're feeling lucky, this is a total momentum trade with absolutely no news behind it other than valuation seems relatively cheap and thus your downside should be limited (that is if the company's proections are accurate).

3/2/10 Midevening Report: Market rises as member of the Fed retires, economists worried more retirements could cause bubble

The Fed is getting all jiggy with the markets today and the markets seem to like it.  First Ben Bernanke's number one henchman, the honorable Donald L. Kohn who in 40 years of service at the Fed never saw a market he couldn't inflate, announced he is resigning from his position as Vice Chairman of the Fed in order to pursue other ventures more productive to society like finding out where the all the bees went, calculating Pi to the 1 billionth decimal (hint: 7), or figuring out how to get a money shot in lesbian porn (and squirting is not an acceptable answer).  When asked why he was retiring, Kohn cited his age, his family, and his annoyance at always having to leave the seat down for Janet Yellen in the Federal Reserve bathroom (and I am told the right stall still contains the graffiti from 1934 of former Fed Chairman Eugene Black stating "Once you go Black, rates will never come back," which helps explain why he was only in that position for only 1 year).  Journalists have begun speculating on who Obama will nominate to fill Kohn's seat at the Fed with leading candidates being the esteemed former President of Harvard Larry Summers who was forced to resign from that position due to a vote of "no confidence" (and seeing how the Fed is supposed to help instill confidence in to the economy, Summer's "no confidence" vote may be a bit of a red flag), some lady named Christina Romer who actually looks a bit like Larry Summers in drag (no really, check it out, this is Larry Summers, this is Christina Romer, have you ever seen them in the same room?), and of course When Genius Prevailed's own Money McBags (and Money McBags will certainly turn down the nomination as it would impede on his time at his not safe for working at the Fed, yet imminently important, hobby of guessing muffs (NSFW)).  Not only is Donald Kohn retiring, but rogue Federal Reserve Board Member Thomas "T-Ho" Hoenig who is the yin to Bernanke's yang, the Mary Kate to Bernanke's Ashley, and the turd to Bernanke's punchbowl, is out again saying rates need to move up sooner rather than later.  While Benny B seemingly dissed T-Ho last week when congress axed him about rates and he said they would be kept low for an extended period of time, T-Ho got all upitty on Benny B and went on CNBC to air his grievances about indefinite low rates, inflation, and Benny B not keeping it real (rates that is).  T-Ho said:  "You are inviting future problems" and then removed his gold teef, took a swig on his 40 of Mickeys, and reiterated that a zero percent fed-funds rate is "inviting future excesses, and we all know my baby momma ain't need no more excesses."   But he didn't stop there, T-Ho took it one step further, opining "I think we shouldn't be guaranteeing markets a zero rate for an extended period."  Rates "could be higher, and the effects would be minor" and "We should start that process sooner rather than later."  He then lamented that that "Bitch ass Benny B better recognize and check himself before he wrecks himself, because this aint no round the way girl he's messing with, this is Uncle fucking Sam."

In international news, continued hopes of a Greek bailout and a rally in India hepled the US market today.  Greece was expected to release their austerity plan which was to shave $3.5B off of their deficit and was to include an increase in their value-added sales tax on things such as Ouzo, saganaki, and greek sodas.  India's government reported increases in manufacturing and exports, which along with strong sales from leading auto producer TaTa Motors (who are now said to beoffering lube jobs with their TaTas), helped send the market to it's high for the month.

In US stock news, Ford became the top auto seller for the month with a 43% increase in sales thanks to the Toyota recall and consumers apparently not giving a shit about buying crappy cars.  This was the first time in 12 years Ford has outsold GM in a month which means they are 3 years ahead of their 15 year plan.  In earnings, Staples Q4 profit dropped 18% as a result of restructuring and disappointing sales of big ticket items like furniture and oversized checks for lottery winners.  The stock dropped 10% as their guidance of $1.23 to $1.33 per share was worse than Rosie O'Donnell's girlfriend's breath after downing a lipsmacking day old tuna fish sandwich.  Estimates were for $1.40 per share and anytime a company lowers earnings by greater than 10%, nothing good happens.  Also, QCOM was up 7% after taking shareholder friendly actions of raising their dividend, announcing a big share buyback, and booking Hannah Hilton as the lunchtime entertainment for their next shareholder meeting (and Money McBags wishes she would hold his shares).

In small cap news a flurry of companies reported today with QCOR shaking off their string of bad quarters while NTRI and NLS helped their shareholders lose weight by making them hurl after each company put up craptastic quarters.  Money McBags will dive into NTRI and NLS a bit later in the week, though he welcomes NLS supporter and long time When Genius Prevailed reader Matty McSacks to chime in and help Money McBags understand which of the 4 earnings from continuing operations numbers realeased today is best to use to evaluate NLS's business.  Money McBags hasn't seen a release so confusing since he hit puberty and shot his first load to the imagined Lisa Whelchel-Nancy McKeon tryst which would have redefined Edna's Edibles.  As for QCOR,  Money McBags broke them down in December concluding that "they could have real upside if they continue to penetrate the MS market and can get on-label IS approval."  Money McBags was waiting to see some more results though before buying as they had run in to reimbursement issues and some sales hiccups and today they certainly put up some strong results with 223% growth in their MS segment and 56% growth in their paid commercial IS segment, plus they had some sales into the nephrotic syndrome market.  Money McBags will break QCOR down later in the week as well as he is pressed for time today but today's 18% rise was likely a short squeeze (and Money McBags realizes he said that about the last time QCOR rallied, but there is something to say about consistency), that said, if they are now back up to a $.52 annual eps run rate with their $.13 eps quarter today, there is no reason they shouldn't trade at 15x that and thus put their value at around $7.50 per share.  The company has been well run and is shareholder friendly, but they need to continue to execute.