Friday, May 14, 2010

5/14/10 Midafternoon Report: Market loses again but Nets and Knicks still said to be interested

Oh shit, the market sunk today like Bernie Madoff's grandchildren's hopes and dreams or like a booze cruise captained by Joseph Hazelwood.  Just when you thought investors had forgotten about Greece like John Edwards forgot about dignity (though perhaps he never had any) or Britney Spears forgot about underwear, it is back in the news bringing down the Euro.  Fears remain that Greece won't be able to service its debt (and it won't, unless perhaps Julia Alexandratou does the servicing), that the Euro may be doomed (is everyone else riding out EUO with Money McBags?), and that Nia Vardalos will finally make a sequel to My Big Fat Greek Wedding.  Making matters worse are that Sony warned that they may suffer a “significant impact” if Europe’s deficit spreads, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said the foundations for a worldwide recovery aren’t “solid” thanks to the continuing debt crisis and the foundations being made out of tofu (and not extra firm tofu, but the regular mushy shit) and paper (the paper of course being the dying Euro), and Hannah Hilton still remains "retired."  Things are looking so bleak today that even the cheering of Alison Preston likely won't cure the markets (though Money McBags would still like to put his rah in her sis-boom-bah).  One way to stop the debt contagion from spreading is to go all Weimar Republic and inflate the shit out of the Euro, another is to break up the EU and stop rewarding moral hazard which seems to be at what Gremany is now hinting.  Breaking up the EU would not only allow Germany and its strong economy to avoid taxing its workers in order to save its freespending neighbors, but it would also allow Germans to practice their favorite past time of schadenfreude.  It is scary out there today so take a deep breath and start booking your vacation to Paris because the Louvre is getting cheaper by the day.

In the US, the banking sector is taken a beating like it's 1986 and it just walked up to Mike Tyson and told him he talks like girl.  Politicians finally seem to want to try to regulate the industry that gave poor people loans in order to sell those loans off to greedy rich people not paying attention and thus destroy the global economy.  First off, credit card companies are taking it in the first bucket today (that was for all you credit card analysts out there) as the Senate voted on legislation to limit interchange fees.  AXP, COF, MA, and V are all down 5% to 10% as a key source of their revenue appears to be drying up like Soul Glo-less jheri curls.  Not only are politicians going after card issuers, but they are trying to fix the rating agencies by creating a middleman (or lucky pierre if you will) to determine who will rate bonds.  This is a bassackward solution, but still better than having rating agencies bid for business and thus completely take objectivity out of just a little something called objectively rating fucking bonds.  First of all, Money McBags doesn't know why any bonds need third party ratings.  Investors should just do their fucking work themselves or rely on the sellside or fucking for all Money McBags cares.  Most importantly though, the current system is more screwed up than Oedipus' sex life or Tori Spellings' face, so Money McBags applauds the baby fucking steps politicians are taking but it's a bit like showering before you bone a hooker because at the end of the day you're still going to get herpes.  Finally, the SEC and NYAG are still going after banks who may have lied to ratings agencies about what they were actually putting in CDOs.  Look, Money McBags has said this before, but they were all fucking complicit.  Honestly, it would take about 3 minutes going through e-mails to convict every bank and every ratings agency of screwing the consumer like the consumer was walking home and hitched a ride on the the Bang Bus.  It was a big shell game only the shell was the global economy and the game was gay chicken and no one flinched so we're all left with flacid cock in our hands.  Be very wary of the financials space right now because if the government wants to be serious and prosecute, there will be no winners, like a Wilford Brimley-Kathy Bates sex tape.

As for macro news, US consumer sentiment was up in May and inline with analyst guesses as the average US consumer can't find Canada on a map, much less Greece, so it just proves that ignorance, and Madelyn Marie, are truly bliss.  Also retail sales rose by .4% which beat analyst guesses of .2%.  However, if autos, gas, and building materials are excluded, retail sales dropped .2%.  Up .4%, down .2%, whatever, it's all rounding to Money McBags, but the point is, and Money McBags has to put this extrememly elegantly because he expects his readers all to be very cunning linguists, shit is still fucked up.

In stock news, it was what Money McBags calls an AC Green or a celibate day as shorts were up and longs were down.  In addition to credit card issuers having their balances transfered, chipmaker Nvidia put up a big quarter but was down on a forecast more lacking than diction on an NBA studio show.  The stock was down 10%+ as they guided to a 3% to 5% revenue decline for the upcoming quarter and analysts were guessing flat to moderately up revenue growth.  Videogame makers are also all getting hit as an industry tracker showed the worst year over year sales decline since the Mario Brothers were implicated in the steroid ring and thus became a bit less "super."  Software sales were down 23% and analysts were expected sales to rise, especially off of a week April number last year while hardware sales were down and amazing 37% as teenagers spent more time playing Scrabble on Facebook and learning to YoYo from the way ahead of his time K-Strass.

In small cap news, everything tumbled except sleepy Money McBags holding DFZ and IBKR.  IBKR is a bit of an interesting play here as the CEO (who also owns 80% of the company) thinks there is $2 of eanrings power in his business but they face lumpy Qs as their market making business is always long volatility to hedge.  Well guess what, unless you have been on the planet Melmac for the past week eating pussy, you are probably aware that volatility is spiking up and thus IBKR's long vol play should bring earnings back to their market making business.  The company takes little balance sheet risk as they are making markets in listed options and hedging their exposures and they have a nice other business which is an online trading platform that is growing 20%+.  This business has been more of a value trap than going to the backroom in a Vegas strip club (and as a word of advice, save the $150 and just get 7 lap dances), but this is the kind of environment where they should excel.  So if you are itching for risk, this is one way to play the financials space relatively safely and with the trends going in your favor and it's still pretty cheap trading at only ~8.5x their earnings potential.

So enjoy your weekend and remember to tell a friend or 10,000 about When Genius Prevailed because the  Money McBags's revolution is underway.  And feel free to follow Money McBags on twitter.

No comments: